Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Jonathan Chou |
| Updated | November 18, 2025 |
October 2025 · Noida
As India’s largest solar and energy storage exhibition, REI featured hot topics ranging from the latest technologies and product showcases to policy developments and evolving supply–demand dynamics. As India has increasingly strengthened its commitment to localizing manufacturing, the global PV supply chain is poised for significant shifts.
Cell supply becomes critical amid AD risks and ALCM requirements
India’s anti-dumping (AD) investigation into Chinese cells and modules, combined with the Approved List of Cell Manufacturers (ALCM) scheduled for implementation in June 2026, has prompted many domestic manufacturers to front-load procurement. They have either stockpiled Chinese cells or shifted sourcing to Southeast Asian ones to mitigate potential tariff exposure.
According to InfoLink’s statistics, India imported 9.2 GW of cells in September 2025, up 35% MoM and up 150% YoY.
As of 4Q25, India’s annual domestic cell capacity has reached about 27 GW. If the ALCM comes into effect in 2026, this capacity will remain insufficient relative to InfoLink’s projected 36–40 GWac of installations in 2025, leaving the market with a structural cell-supply deficit. Moreover, low levels of production-line automation and persistent yield challenges indicate that some planned capacity expansions may hardly be commissioned as scheduled, further tightening supply availability.
Demand growth remains robust, but module oversupply has emerged
Although India’s PV demand remains strong and is expected to grow 10% annually through 2030, its domestic module capacity has surpassed 100 GW by 4Q25, placing the market in clear oversupply.
InfoLink expects India’s module sector to undergo capacity exits between late 2026 and 2027. Manufacturers lacking in-house cell capacity or reliable domestic procurement channels will likely be the first to be phased out amid the growing supply–demand imbalance.
Exhibit: G12R accounted for over 30%; BC modules made debut
Exhibited products were primarily centered on TOPCon technology. Notably, the share of G12R modules increased significantly to 33%, underscoring India’s ongoing push toward technological upgrades and larger-format module designs.
Notably, Indian manufacturers showcased xBC modules for the first time. However, InfoLink’s research indicates that all such exhibits were imported from China and used mainly for technology demonstration and brand promotion. Indian manufacturers also noted that, given current technical constraints and limited downstream acceptance, xBC module expansion is unlikely before late 2026, with cell capacity expansion expected to take even longer.
Overall, supported by localization policies, India’s PV market is entering a structural transition that will test manufacturers’ technological depth and business strategies. Shifts in cell and module capacity will increasingly shape the Indian market and influence the broader global PV supply-chain landscape.
For more in-depth market analysis and data insights from the event, please refer to the full REI report available in the download system for InfoLink members.
