Lithium prices fluctuate at highs, cells steady, system prices edge higher

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Over the past month, lithium carbonate prices fell before rebounding, then fluctuated at elevated levels.

Updates as of March 6, 2026:

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)

Price range: USD 2050-2150/MT

Average price: USD 2100/MT

Up 16.7% from the previous period

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)

Price range: RMB 148,000–158,000/MT

Average price: RMB 153,000/MT

Up 11.7% from the previous period

Price fluctuations have mainly been driven by shifts in supply–demand dynamics and developments outside China. Before the Lunar New Year, the downstream restocking cycle came to an end, while lithium concentrate shipments from non-China sources such as Chile remained elevated, putting temporary pressure on lithium carbonate spot prices. After the holiday, external supply disruptions lifted market expectations: Zimbabwe announced a suspension of lithium ore and concentrate exports on February 25, raising concerns over potential tightening of African lithium supply. However, Zimbabwe may still allow exports through a licensing mechanism for companies with lithium salt processing capacity, such as lithium sulfate production. In addition, given the typical two-to-three-month shipping lead time for these materials to reach China, the policy’s substantive impact is more likely to affect supply expectations in the later part of Q2. Meanwhile, disruptions to shipping caused by tightening geopolitical tensions, together with uncertainty over the timing of lithium resource arrivals, have further amplified price volatility in the futures market.

On the demand side, the energy storage segment remains the key support for lithium carbonate prices, while the pace of demand recovery from the power battery sector still requires close monitoring. Going forward, the sustainability of overall demand remains subject to market validation. Under a market structure where both supply and demand are expanding, the short-term price level of lithium carbonate is mainly driven by the pace of supply-side capacity realization and market sentiment. Currently, prices above RMB 150,000/MT have already begun to squeeze margins across downstream segments. Overall, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the near term.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Price quotes for energy storage cells have remained stable compared with the previous period. According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells are as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.420-0.465/Wh, averaging RMB 0.443/Wh; unchanged from the previous period.

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.330-0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh; unchanged from the previous period.

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.330-0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh; unchanged from the previous period.

Since entering a sustained upward trend in January, energy storage cell prices have now largely absorbed the cost pass-through pressure stemming from upstream raw material price hikes. Market expectations that cell prices are more likely to rise than fall continue to solidify, with some suppliers’ external price quotes already exceeding RMB 0.40/Wh.

On the supply–demand side, cell production lines are generally operating at high utilization rates in March, with newly added capacity at some manufacturers ramping up quickly. Overall shipments are therefore expected to remain at elevated levels. Coupled with the current tight order delivery schedules and ongoing constraints on product lead times, cell quotes are likely to remain firm in the short term.

Looking ahead, if prices of key upstream raw materials—such as lithium salts and cathode materials—show a clear correction, adjustments in cell prices are more likely to appear in the form of slower negotiation pace and phased declines once settlement windows tied to upstream–downstream price linkage clauses are activated.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

Winning bid prices for ESS have edge up slightly in China. Prices are as follows, based on the latest data:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.43-0.52/Wh, averaging RMB 0.48/Wh, unchanged from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.79-0.85/Wh, averaging RMB 0.82/Wh, unchanged from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.49-0.61/Wh, averaging RMB 0.55/Wh, up 0.9% from the previous period.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.47-0.52/Wh, averaging RMB 0.50/Wh, up 1% from the previous period.

Affected by rising raw material and cell prices, the results of several framework procurement tenders announced in February showed a moderate recovery in ESS bid prices for both 2h and 4h durations. The average transaction price of 4h ESS has approached a temporary high of nearly RMB 0.50/Wh.

However, in terms of supply-chain cost pass-through, system integrators have yet to fully absorb the earlier increase in cell prices. ESS price gains remain smaller than those at the cell level, leaving the ESS segment under greater upward cost pressure. Since February, procurement tenders for ESS projects in Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Xinjiang have ranked among the largest in the market.

Meanwhile, procurement requirements for project delivery and lifecycle performance continue to tighten. Evaluation frameworks are shifting from price-driven selection toward lifecycle capability, with greater weighting on warranty terms, availability performance requirements, and O&M services. constraints on key technical parameters and acceptance standards are becoming more detailed, further narrowing the winning prospects of low-specification, short-warranty, or weak O&M proposals.

Looking ahead, if cell prices remain elevated, ESS will continue to face upward cost pressure. However, the upside for ESS prices will still be constrained by tendering pace, bidding intensity, and integrators’ ability to absorb rising costs.

On February 10, 2026, China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) announced the first batch of pilot projects for ”New Power System” capability enhancement. The initiative includes 43 pilot projects and 10 pilot cities, covering key areas such as grid-friendly renewable power plants, shared energy storage, and grid-forming technology applications. The pilots are also required to improve supporting mechanisms while strengthening grid connection and dispatch support.

On February 11, China’s General Office of the State Council issued the Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System, setting the target of establishing a unified national electricity market by 2030. The document calls for accelerating the development of spot, medium- and long-term, and ancillary service markets, promoting integration between interprovincial and intraprovincial trading, and unifying market rules and standards, while strengthening market-based price signals to guide power supply–demand balance and flexibility resources.

Together, the two policies send a clear signal to the industry. First, the unified national electricity market framework and standardized trading mechanisms strengthen the institutional foundation for energy storage to participate in market-based transactions, improving the bankability and realizability of project revenues. Second, the pilot projects accelerate the engineering deployment and scalable replication of core storage technologies and operational models, while pushing procurement frameworks to shift from price competition toward comprehensive evaluation of grid compatibility, system availability, and long-term delivery capability. This is expected to provide sustained support for grid-side and standalone energy storage demand in China in 2026.