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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 05, 2026 |
Lithium ore and lithium salt
Over the past week, prices for spodumene concentrate and battery-grade lithium carbonate have slightly declined:
- Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)
Price range: RMB 138,000–142,000/MT
Average price: RMB 140,000/MT
Down 2.8% WoW - Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)
Price range: USD 1,980–2,060/MT
Average price: USD 2,020/MT
Down 1.7% WoW
This week’s price decline reflects a market reassessment of the H2 price midpoint. Expectations of new supply and a looser 2027 supply-demand balance continue to pressure futures prices. The spot market, on the other hand, has not weakened materially: after prices fell back to around RMB 140,000/MT, downstream price locking and phased stocking continue to provide buying support. Overall, lithium carbonate remains balanced between near-term support from inventory drawdowns and longer-term pressure from a weaker outlook.
On the supply side, Jianxiawo’s actual output after production restart has fallen short of earlier expectations. Market attention has therefore shifted from the restart itself to the pace of production ramp-up. Australian lithium ore shipments declined MoM in July. In China, lithium ore inventories have recovered somewhat following arrivals from earlier shipments but remain low overall. Spot ore availability remains limited, while margins on processing externally sourced ore are thin, providing some support against further price declines. On the lithium salt side, some lithium salt producers, brine operators, and Zimbabwe-related companies have scheduled maintenance or production cuts in August. Winter conditions in South America have also disrupted shipment schedules, preventing near-term supply from loosening rapidly. On the demand side, midstream production schedules remains elevated, with continued growth in EV and energy storage cell production plans supporting solid apparent demand for lithium carbonate. Overall, ongoing inventory drawdowns are expected to support prices in August. While some arrivals from non-Chinese markets may ease supply pressure after September, peak-season demand is likely to continue absorbing inventories.
Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain range-bound at low levels in the near term. Fundamentals are relatively stable, supported by inventory drawdowns, maintenance at lithium salt facilities, and high midstream production schedules, which limit further rapid declines. However, investors' concerns over potential oversupply in 2027 are likely to constrain any meaningful price recovery. If demand materializes as expected after August, the market may again price in support from the Q4 peak season. However, compared with earlier highs, the price midpoint for H2 has been revised down significantly, and prices are more likely to fluctuate within a range of RMB 130,000–150,000/MT.
Energy storage cells in China
Over the past week, transaction prices for China’s LFP energy storage cells have remained stable, with prices as follows:
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100 Ah: RMB 0.405–0.480/Wh, averaging RMB 0.443/Wh (flat WoW)
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280 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh (flat WoW)
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314 Ah: RMB 0.330–0.390/Wh, averaging RMB 0.360/Wh (flat WoW)
As lithium carbonate prices have declined to around RMB 140,000/MT, midpoint of cell cost has also eased. Some manufacturers are offering price concessions to major customers and under long-term contracts to secure orders and maintain utilization. While average prices are flat MoM, actual transaction prices have declined, with some utility-scale energy storage cell orders falling below RMB 0.360/Wh.
Structurally, the decline in cell prices has been driven more by cost reassessment and competition for orders than by a material weakening in demand. Utility-scale energy storage projects continue to primarily adopt 314 Ah cells. Although 500 Ah and larger formats are emerging, they have not yet significantly altered the near-term supply mix of mainstream cell types. Stronger bargaining power among major customers has led some cell manufacturers to secure Q4 orders at lower prices to maintain production schedules. While 100 Ah cell prices were previously supported by strong residential storage and non-China behind-the-meter (BTM) demand, persistent inventory pressure in certain channels has weakened price resilience. In the near term, cell transaction prices are expected to remain stable at low levels. Continued declines in lithium carbonate prices may lead to modest downward adjustments in some long-term contracts and new orders. However, strong and sustained demand for energy storage is likely to limit further significant price declines.
Energy storage system (ESS) in China
For the past week, transaction prices for electrochemical ESS in China have remained stable. Prices are as follows:
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DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45–0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh (flat WoW)
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AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.81-0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh (flat)
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AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.52-0.63/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh (flat)
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AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.50-0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.53/Wh (flat)
Lower cell costs continue to feed through to DC-side system prices. However, the system side must also cover the costs of PCS, step-up transformers, EMS, thermal management, fire protection, grid connection and commissioning, and warranty obligations, leaving relatively limited room for AC-side system price adjustments. Integrators are increasingly pricing based on the scope of supply, equipment configuration, and project-specific risks, while the potential to drive system prices further down solely through lower cell costs remains limited.
Recent procurement for utility-scale ESS more clearly reflects the tendering side’s screening of integrators based on their integration capabilities. In late July, several Chinese central state-owned enterprises initiated framework procurements for LFP ESS totaling over 4 GWh. The tenders include both 2-hour and 4-hour systems and require full system delivery, including battery containers, PCS, BMS, EMS, transformers, combiner units, and enclosures. Some frame procurement further distinguishes among grid-following, grid-forming, and string-based architectures. They require battery containers to use LFP cells of 314 Ah or above, with a liquid-cooling thermal management solution, a minimum capacity of 5 MWh per container, and each integrated PCS and step-up transformer unit must have a capacity of at least 5 MW. Compared to individual equipment pricing, project owners prioritize system integrators with proven utility-scale project experience, strong core component coordination capabilities, and reliable long-term delivery performance. Although system prices remain highly competitive and under downward pressure, future tender evaluations are expected to place greater emphasis on technology pathways, grid-connection capability, project execution track record, and end-to-end system delivery rather than solely focusing on reducing ESS unit costs.
Outside China, U.S. tariff adjustments and inverter market-access restrictions are increasingly disrupting Chinese ESS exports. On the tariff front, the tariff burden on Chinese energy storage batteries and related products exported to the U.S. has increased from approximately 38.4% to 40.9%, weakening the price competitiveness of Chinese ESS products in the U.S. market. The U.S. has recently imposed import restrictions on certain new network-connected power inverters from China. While previously approved models remain outside the current scope, market access for new projects has tightened significantly, with stricter requirements for procurement, certification, and supply-chain review. For major Chinese ESS companies, new U.S. export projects will incur higher costs due to localized assembly, substitution of non-Chinese inverters, and compliance requirements, leading to increased system quotes and longer delivery times. For C&I ESS suppliers with limited U.S. revenue exposure, the near-term direct impact is relatively limited. However, orders for residential ESS, C&I all-in-one cabinets, and inverter-integrated solutions may still experience fluctuations due to channel destocking, certification transitions, and cautious customer sentiment. These trade policies are expected to drive Chinese ESS exporters to accelerate localized manufacturing in North America, expand third-party production partnerships, and diversify their market presence beyond the U.S.