Lithium prices pull back from highs; cell and system prices hold steady

*Starting in May 2026, InfoLink ESS spot price commentary will be published every Wednesday in Chinese and every Thursday in English.

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Over the past week, prices for spodumene concentrate and battery-grade lithium carbonate have seen a sharp correction. Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices have fallen 6.7% WoW to RMB 180,000–184,000/MT, averaging RMB 182,000/MT. Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF) prices in China have declined 7.1% WoW to USD 2,550–2,650/MT, averaging USD 2,600/MT. The downturn is mainly driven by the concentrated release of bearish factors built up during the prior high-price period, compounded broader pressure across commodities further amplified the magnitude of the correction.

On the supply side, Chinese lithium carbonate production remains at high operating rates, keeping overall supply ample. Mine restarts outside China are also accelerating, with Australia’s Bald Hill, Ngungaju, and Finniss projects officially announcing resumptions and expected to reach stable production in 3Q–4Q26. In Brazil, Sigma’s Phase I spodumene concentrate capacity has fully recovered, with 2026 output guidance at around 240,000 MT. Zimbabwean lithium ore cargoes are expected to arrive in China gradually from late June to early July. Global supply is gradually improving, which should help ease previous tightness in lithium concentrate supply. However, spot inventories in China are still expected to decline slightly in the near term.

On the demand side, energy storage remains the most visible growth driver, with midstream material producers maintaining high production schedules and new LFP and cell capacity gradually coming online. Recovery in China’s EV battery market remains slow, and end-market demand stays uncertain. Given the two-week to one-month lag in raw material cost pass-through to energy storage cell prices, negative demand-side feedback potentially triggered by elevated raw material prices still warrants close monitoring.

Overall, after a rapid increase in lithium carbonate prices to a cyclical high, market sentiment has turned more cautious, with sensitivity to bearish news rising notably. Higher inflation data in China and the U.S., rising U.S. Treasury yields, stronger expectations of tighter liquidity after Warsh took office, and weaker overall risk appetite have accelerated the latest correction. Following the short-term pullback in futures, downstream basis-price transactions have become more active. Still, elevated production schedules among midstream players should provide some support, with lithium carbonate prices likely to remain rangebound at high levels in the near term.

Energy storage cells in China

Quoted prices in China’s LFP cell market have remained stable in the past week. Prices for LFP prismatic cells across formats are as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.425–0.480/Wh, averaging RMB 0.453/Wh (flat)

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.340–0.410/Wh, averaging RMB 0.375/Wh (flat)

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.340-0.405/Wh, averaging RMB 0.373/Wh (flat)

Recent market research shows weak downstream acceptance of cell transaction prices above RMB 0.370/Wh when lithium carbonate is priced at RMB 160,000/MT, limiting room for further near-term increases in cell quotes. In 1Q26, the cell segment maintained strong profitability and remained one of the more stable profit pools in the supply chain. However, the rapid rise in lithium carbonate prices in Q2 has strengthened upstream resource advantages, reducing the cell segment’s profit share and shifting pricing power further upstream.

Although high midstream utiliziation rates continue to support stable cell supply, market sensitivity to high-priced transactions has increased significantly. Cell quotes have become more responsive to raw material fluctuations, with future price trends still largely dependent on lithium carbonate prices and upstream supply dynamics. As cost pass-through and profit redistribution progress, the supply chain’s overall profit structure will continue to evolve.

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

Prices for electrochemical ESS in China have remained stable overall for the past week. Prices are as follows:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45-0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh, unchanged WoW.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.81-0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh, unchanged WoW.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.51-0.64/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh, unchanged WoW.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.49-0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.52/Wh, unchanged WoW.

On May 1, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Standardization Administration of China officially released GB/T 47032-2026, Code of Operational Evaluation of Wind-PV-Storage Hybrid Power Plants, establishing a systematic evaluation framework for hybrid power plants integrating wind, PV, and energy storage. Covering energy efficiency, reliability, O&M, and market-based trading indicators, the standard regulates the full evaluation process from data collection and indicator calculation to comprehensive scoring and root-cause analysis, ensuring data traceability and scientifically grounded results.

For the energy storage industry, the standard helps quantify project efficiency, reliability, and economics, supporting better ESS construction and operational management. It also provides a clearer benchmark for dispatch optimization and cost control across the supply chain, improving investment visibility and long-term market competitiveness.

Recent high-level China-U.S. talks reached a preliminary consensus on trade and economic issues. Both sides have agreed that future tariff levels on Chinese goods will remain within the established framework, while some unilateral tariffs may be gradually removed through follow-up consultations. Currently, China’s ESS exports to the U.S. face a combined tariff rate of 38.4%, comprising the base Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) tariff, Section 301 tariffs, and reciprocal additional tariffs.

If new tariff arrangements are implemented, export cost pressure could ease further, directly benefiting Chinese ESS suppliers entering the U.S. market. Amid the accelerating U.S. energy transition, rising storage demand, and utility-scale renewable integration, Chinese companies may see more stable market conditions and growth opportunities in cell and ESS exports, supporting expansion outside China and profitability improvement across the value chain.