Lithium prices firm amid volatility, while cell and BESS prices stay stable

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Lithium carbonate prices have remained rangebound at elevated levels recently, with the mainstream price levels slightly higher than before. Futures showed a pullback followed by a rebound, with the benchmark contract trading largely within RMB 160,000–175,000/MT.

As of April 20, prices are as follows:

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)

Price range: USD 2,300-2,400/MT

Average price: USD 2,350/MT

Up 5.4% from the previous period

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)

Price range: RMB 165,000–169,000/MT

Average price: RMB 167,000/MT

Up 7.7% from the previous period

Mining price increases continue to outpace those of lithium salts, indicating that the supply–demand imbalance remains concentrated at the resource end. Tight ore supply provides stronger support to lithium carbonate prices, outweighing pressure from weaker lithium salt fundamentals.

On the supply side, market focus remains on mining segment, particularly Zimbabwe. Recent signals indicate that export arrangements for Chinese-funded companies are becoming clearer, with shipments potentially resuming under quotas, revised tax structures, and local processing requirements. However, supply gaps created during the earlier export restrictions are unlikely to be fully bridged in the near term.

With transit times of around two months, even if shipments resume around the Labor Day holiday on May 1, incremental supply in China is unlikely to materialize until early Q3, making the mining-side supply continuity after July a key focus. Meanwhile, reports of mine restarts in Jiangxi remain largely speculative and are unlikely to materially affect lithium salt output in the near term, warranting continued monitoring. In Australia, diesel cost and operational disruptions have yet to translate into output losses, and the risk of large-scale shutdowns remains low.

Overall, lithium ore inventories are expected to continue declining in April, with upstream supply remaining tight. In contrast, supported by ramp-ups in brine extraction and recycling, along with increased lithium carbonate exports outside China, the lithium salt segment has yet to tighten in the spot market, indicating that upstream constraints have not fully transmitted downstream.

On the demand side, downstream production schedules for April–May have been revised upward, with leading ternary battery and LFP cell manufacturers raising output plans. The share of energy storage continues to increase, serving as the most stable source of demand support. In contrast, although power battery production remains elevated, end-market sales recovery is still limited, and inventories continued to build in Q1, with demand weaker than previously expected.

If Zimbabwean exports and the Jianxiawo project recovery fall short of expectations, lithium salt destocking is likely to extend into Q3, potentially tightening supply further amid speculative restocking. Conversely, if these supply-side constraints ease, the likelihood of inventory rebuilding in Q3 will increase.

Overall, the market remains characterized by tight ore supply, a relatively balanced lithium salt segment, and a divergent demand structure. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain elevated and range-bound in the near term, with upside constrained, while a normalization of supply could drive a downward shift in the price center.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Transaction price levels for energy storage cells have remained broadly stable, with slight upward adjustments observed in select formats.

According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells across all formats remain unchanged from the previous period, as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.420-0.475/Wh, averaging RMB 0.448/Wh.

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.340-0.400/Wh, averaging RMB 0.370/Wh.

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.335-0.395/Wh, averaging RMB 0.365/Wh.

Mainstream prices for newly signed orders have generally maintained above RMB 0.350/Wh. Quotes for 500+ Ah large-capacity cells from leading manufacturers are broadly in line with those for 314 Ah products.

By format, effective supply of 280Ah cells remains constrained, and downstream application scenarios are more limited, keeping prices slightly above 314 Ah. In contrast, smaller-capacity cells for residential storage have strengthened. Supported by demand in Europe, Australia, the U.S., and select emerging markets, supply of 100 Ah, 72 Ah, and 50 Ah cells remains tight, sustaining a price premium. This trend is also reflected in order momentum and capital market performance among residential storage players.

Overall, the recent increases in cell prices are not demand-led, but underpinned by elevated costs, tight supply in select formats, and delivery constraints. Meanwhile, after absorbing earlier increases, system integrators show diminishing tolerance for further price hikes, with procurement increasingly prioritizing lead times, supplier credibility, and contractual alignment.

In sum, the cell market has shifted from active price increases to high-level negotiation. At current cost and price levels, cell manufacturers’ margins remain supported, while pressure on system integrators is more pronounced. If lithium carbonate and cathode material prices correct more clearly, cell quotes may see marginal easing.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

Prices for battery energy storage systems (BESS) in China have remained stable, as the cost pass-through from earlier cell price increases continues at the system level.

Based on the latest data, all prices remain flat from the previous period, as follows:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45-0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.81-0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.51-0.64/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.48-0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.51/Wh.

Overall, ESS prices have shown a phase of recovery compared to the beginning of the year. Based on the latest tender results, the price level for four-hour ESS has largely stabilized above RMB 0.50/Wh; however, downstream acceptance of higher quotes remains limited.

For the Hebei Transportation Investment Group’s Dehui standalone energy storage projects in Kuancheng announced on April 16, shortlisted bids ranged from RMB 0.499–0.524/Wh, with a provisional award at RMB 0.512/Wh. This confirms an upward shift in the price floor for long-duration ESS, although acceptance of prices above RMB 0.55/Wh remains constrained. Notably, a substantial number of bids were disqualified during evaluation, indicating that tendering is transitioning from single-factor price competition toward a more comprehensive framework assessing product configuration, corporate qualifications, execution capability, and project track record.

Financial reports from leading energy storage companies since 4Q25 indicate that rising lithium carbonate and cell prices have significantly compressed system integration margins, further squeezing already limited profitability in China and eroding margins in higher-value non-China markets. Overall, while ESS quotes face upward pressure, near-term movements are likely to remain within a narrow range, constrained by project-side price pressure, stricter tender criteria, and limited margin headroom.

On April 9, 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), and the National Energy Administration (NEA) jointly convened a symposium with power and energy storage battery enterprises to reinforce measures for regulating industry competition. Key priorities include advancing capacity early-warning and control mechanisms, standardizing price competition, shortening supplier payment terms, strengthening product quality oversight, enhancing intellectual property protection, and curbing disorderly expansion and cut-throat competition. A negative list of irrational competitive practices in the industry was also discussed. Compared with earlier signals this year, the policy stance is now clearer, indicating tighter constraints on extreme low-price competition, extended payment cycles, and irrational expansion across both cell and system segments.

For the industry, this policy direction is unlikely to drive a unilateral price increase. Instead, it raises the threshold for aggressive undercutting, reinforces price floors at both the cell and system integration levels, and shifts competition from price-driven dynamics toward product quality, delivery efficiency, and lifecycle service capabilities. In line with tightening requirements on quality, safety, and execution in China’s 2026 energy storage projects, this latest push against excessive competition is expected to improve the sustainability of energy storage cell and system prices, benefiting leading players with advantages in scale, technology, and delivery.