Lithium prices break above recent highs; cell and system prices edge up

*Starting in May 2026, InfoLink ESS spot price commentary will be published every Wednesday in Chinese and every Thursday in English.
 

Lithium ore and lithium salt

Recently, lithium carbonate prices have generally trended upward, with the overall price level moving higher than in the previous period. Based on the latest data, prices over the past week are as follows:

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate (spot)

Price range: RMB 170,000–176,000/MT

Average price: RMB 173,000/MT

Up 3.6% from the previous assessment

• Spodumene concentrate (SC6, CIF)

Price range: USD 2,450-2,530/MT

Average price: USD 2,490/MT

Up 6.0% from the previous assessment

On the supply side, China’s lithium carbonate output continued to increase in April and May, with most leading producers maintaining high utilization rates and strong production momentum. However, non-China mine supply remains the biggest source of uncertainty in the current market. Although Zimbabwean lithium ore exports have moved into the implementation stage of resumption, actual shipment efficiency has fallen short of expectations, with arrivals in China facing notable delays. Even as some mining companies have secured export permit breakthroughs, it will still take several months for these cargoes to feed through to China’s domestic supply chain. Meanwhile, slower permit renewals at Jiangxi lepidolite mines, together with rising international shipping and fuel costs, have further limited short-term supply flexibility at the mining end. Overall, most cargoes scheduled for delivery in April and May had already been locked in earlier, while mine-side inventories are expected to continue drawing down. Tight raw material supply is unlikely to ease significantly in the near term and will continue to provide upside support for lithium prices.

On the demand side, production schedules for LFP cathodes, ternary cathodes, and energy storage cells are expected to continue increasing MoM in May, keeping midstream production momentum strong. By contrast, recovery in the EV end market remains relatively moderate, and the sustainability of demand improvement still requires further tracking and verification. Meanwhile, orders in the energy storage segment remain robust, making it the most important source of incremental support for lithium carbonate demand.

Overall, China’s lithium carbonate market in May is shaped by the interplay of improving MoM demand, persistent mine-side disruptions, and relatively ample lithium salt inventories. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain stable with upward momentum, while lithium ore prices are more likely to see further upward revisions.

Considering that supply-side ramp-up has fallen short of previous expectations, while midstream production schedules remain elevated, InfoLink has further raised its 2026 full-year lithium carbonate price forecast. Prices are expected to range between RMB 140,000/MT and RMB 190,000/MT for the year. If mine-side disruptions persist, prices may temporarily test above RMB 200,000/MT.
 

Energy storage cells in China

Recently, quoted prices in China’s LFP cell market have edged up slightly. According to the latest data, prices for LFP prismatic cells across all formats are as follows:

• 100 Ah: RMB 0.425-0.475/Wh, averaging RMB 0.450/Wh, up 0.6 % from the previous period.

• 280 Ah: RMB 0.340-0.400/Wh, averaging RMB 0.370/Wh, unchanged from the previous period

• 314 Ah: RMB 0.340-0.395/Wh, averaging RMB 0.368/Wh, up 0.7 % from the previous period.

On the cost side, recent price movements for cell raw materials have been mixed. As lithium carbonate prices broke above RMB 170,000/MT and rose to their highest level in nearly two years, LFP cathode material for energy storage also approached RMB 60,000/MT, providing firm support for cell costs. However, electrolyte prices declined during the month. Based on comprehensive estimates, the after-tax cost of energy storage cells had exceeded RMB 0.32/Wh by the end of April, reaching an absolute high in nearly three years.

On the transaction side, newly signed transaction prices for 314 Ah cells from Tier-2, 3 manufacturers have mostly risen to RMB 0.355–0.380/Wh recently, while some individual orders from leading companies have approached RMB 0.400/Wh. However, in April, Inner Mongolia CLP Energy Storage New Energy Co., Ltd set a maximum price of RMB 0.37/Wh for its 2 GWh-scale centralized procurement of 314 Ah cells, with shortlisted bids falling within the RMB 0.34–0.37/Wh range. This also reflects limited downstream acceptance of high-priced cells, with resistance to further cell price increases strengthening significantly.
 

Energy storage system (ESS) in China

Prices for battery energy storage systems (BESS) in China have slightly increased. Based on the latest data, prices are as follows:

• DC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.45-0.53/Wh, averaging RMB 0.49/Wh, same as previous level.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (1h): RMB 0.81-0.87/Wh, averaging RMB 0.84/Wh, same as previous level.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (2h): RMB 0.51-0.64/Wh, averaging RMB 0.58/Wh, same as previous level.

• AC-side liquid-cooled containerized ESS (4h): RMB 0.49-0.55/Wh, averaging RMB 0.52/Wh, up 1.1% from the previous period.

Although tender prices for utility-scale ESS have rebounded, most projects remain sensitive to high-priced equipment. In April, Hebei Transportation Investment Group’s Dehui standalone energy storage station in Kuancheng launched procurement for a 297 MW/1,188 MWh LFP BESS equipment. The top three winning candidates were REsource Electric, Envision Energy Storage, and XJ Group, with bid prices ranging from RMB 0.499/Wh to RMB 0.512/Wh. The project was originally planned with a total capacity of 300 MW/1,200 MWh. It also required bidders to have signed LFP BESS equipment supply contracts totaling at least 5 GWh in China over the past three years and did not accept consortium bids. This case shows that the central price level for four-hour utility-scale BESS has largely stabilized around RMB 0.50/Wh, while tenderers have also set explicit caps on maximum bid prices.

Meanwhile, in Qinghai’s draft rules for the generation-side reliable capacity compensation mechanism, the equivalent compensation for four-hour ESS was lowered from RMB 154/kW-year in the first version to RMB 76.26/kW-year, indicating that policy-based revenue expectations have narrowed in some regions. If similar capacity compensation standards or dispatch revenues are reduced going forward, project-side constraints on system prices will strengthen further, keeping gross margins for integrators under pressure.

Based on 2025 annual reports and 1Q26 results, profit distribution across the energy storage supply chain has further shown a pattern of strong profitability upstream and widening earnings divergence in the midstream and downstream segments. In the upstream segments including lithium mining, lithium salt, and cathode material, companies benefited from the rebound in lithium carbonate prices from the bottom, temporary supply-demand mismatches, and continued demand growth from both the EV and energy storage sectors. These segments showed the strongest revenue and earnings elasticity and delivered the most meaningful earnings realization in the current price cycle.

In the midstream cell segment, both volume and prices increased in Q1, while price increases for key raw materials such as lithium salts and cathode materials were largely passed through to end market, leading to a notable recovery in corporate profitability. By contrast, supporting equipment segments such as power conversion systems (PCS), thermal management and fire safety systems, and electrical equipment faced pressure from both upstream and downstream, narrowing their profit margins. Although the system integration segment benefited from shipment growth and concentrated project deliveries, profitability recovery remains challenging under the dual pressure of rising cell costs and rigid tender price constraints. Its subsequent earnings performance will still depend on cost pass-through capability, project delivery efficiency, and the expansion of high-premium orders in non-China markets.