Technological innovation amid solar PV industry restructuring

The PV industry remains in a difficult adjustment phase amid intense competition, characterized by overcapacity, high inventory levels, persistent low-price competition, cost pressures, constrained overseas expansion, and prolonged weak demand. Profitability remains under strain, driving manufacturers to prioritize efficiency gains and cost control.

Policy guidance is intensifying. Anti-price-war measures, industry self-regulation, and the polysilicon stockpiling platform are forming a coordinated framework to stabilize the sector. In 2026, capacity expansion is expected to decelerate, with prices potentially bottoming out and entering a recovery phase. The industry’s competitive logic is likely to shift from scale expansion to value creation.

Technological innovation will be the central catalyst of this transition, positioning 2026 as a watershed year for PV technology evolution.
 

Market–policy synergy driving accelerated technological iteration and differentiation

On the market front, centralized module procurement tenders are raising minimum efficiency thresholds, steadily increasing the share of high-efficiency modules. This shift is redirecting competition away from low-price competition toward technology-led, quality-focused development.

For example, recent tenders setting a 23.8% efficiency threshold require manufacturers to upgrade TOPCon products toward the 3.0 level to remain eligible, as shown in the chart. This shift entails higher R&D investment, production line upgrades, and stricter yield management. Consequently, low-efficiency capacity is being phased out more rapidly, and profitability is becoming increasingly polarized. Qualified products can secure a technology premium, while those failing to meet the threshold face the risk of being phased out.

In the short term, this transition will entail consolidation-driven pressure. Over the long term, it is an essential step toward reestablishing technological leadership and restoring the industry to a sustainable growth path.


 

On the policy front, effective April 1, 2026, China will eliminate VAT export rebates for PV products. While this policy shift increases short-term pressure, it in fact serves as a catalyst for technological innovation. It drives the industry to shift decisively from price competition to technology-led competition, and from rebate dependence to innovation-driven growth. Through policy and external pressure, the sector is being steered toward structural transformation, ultimately converting technological strength into a global competitive advantage.

At the same time, trade barriers such as carbon footprint thresholds are further driving upgrades in technology.
 

High-efficiency modules: TOPCon evolution and BC breakthrough

Although TOPCon has been the mainstream technology in recent years, it faces intensifying commoditization. To sustain technological leadership, leading manufacturers—despite sustained losses—continue to expand R&D investment. As cost reduction approaches quality limits, efficiency improvement has become the focus. Some tier-1 players are accelerating the upgrade to TOPCon 3.0 to widen performance differentiation and strengthen their position amid industry consolidation.

TOPCon 3.0 goes beyond refinement, incorporating a redesigned circuit architecture and an upgraded BOM structure. Compared with standard TOPCon, cell slicing advances from half-cut to 1/3 cut or 1/4 cut, integrated with efficiency-enhancement solutions such as edge passivation and Poly Finger. Coupled with high-density integration technologies—including negative spacing design and full-screen designs —module output can increase by more than 10 W. Under the 2382*1134 mm format, output is expected to reach around 650 W.

High-efficiency technology requires corresponding BOM enhancements. Higher glass transmittance improves light utilization, while optimized encapsulant configuration strengthens module reliability. Lower current designs facilitate the application of copper–aluminum composite ribbons, and improved junction box structure and layout further enhance overall performance and reliability.


 

As TOPCon scales to consolidate its leadership and close the efficiency gap with BC, the latter—positioned as a differentiated pathway—continues to iterate rapidly. Building on its inherent front-side output advantage, BC integrates gain technologies such as 0BB, shingling, and full-screen designs. Rapid breakthroughs in silver reduction further supports cost control while preserving its output premium.

From a BOM perspective, BC modules have moved beyond conventional configurations. The application of insulating paste and tin paste enhances soldering reliability, and copper–aluminum composite ribbons have achieved mature large-scale production.
 

Conclusion and outlook

Amid ongoing industry restructuring, technological innovation has evolved beyond a pure efficiency race into a contest against time and cost. In this survival-driven transition, perovskite technology remains subject to considerable uncertainty, while crystalline silicon must accelerate execution to sustain competitiveness.

TOPCon continues to serve as the industry’s backbone in volume deployment, while BC stands at the efficiency frontier. Rather than a zero-sum game, the two technologies are complementary, jointly advancing technology breakthroughs. The critical questions now center on strategic positioning of technology roadmaps and further refinement of BOM optimization.

For further analysis, please refer to InfoLink’s New Technology Market Report and PV Bill of Material Market Report for insights into breakthrough pathways.