Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Amy Fang |
| Updated | July 30, 2026 |
According to China customs data compiled by InfoLink, China exported 17.44 GW of PV modules in June 2026, up 24% MoM but down 20% YoY from 21.69 GW. China's total module exports totaled approximately 128.22 GW from January to June 2026, broadly flat with last year’s 127.34 GW, as cumulative YoY growth narrowed to around 1%. While cumulative exports in January–May still recorded a 5% YoY growth, the increase had narrowed to nearly zero by the end of H1. This indicates that the MoM rebound in June did not reverse the broader trend of weakening export momentum following the removal of export tax rebates, amid price renegotiations and channel adjustments.
China exported approximately 5.95 GW of PV cells in June 2026, down 31% MoM and 20% YoY from 7.47 GW, marking the lowest monthly export in 2026. From January to June, China’s cell exports totaled about 59.76 GW, up roughly 37% YoY. Although cumulative growth remained higher than that of modules, it had narrowed significantly from around 49% in January–May. June marked the first clear divergence between cells and modules this year, with module exports rebounding while cell exports continued to decline. This is primarily due to the policy impact from the Indian market on the cell segment.
The five largest single-country markets for China’s module exports in June 2026 were the Netherlands, Pakistan, Australia, the Philippines, and Brazil, together accounting for 39% (6.71 GW) of the total export volume. By region, Europe remained the largest export destination in June at approximately 7.07 GW, followed by Asia-Pacific at 5.51 GW. The Middle East, Africa, and the Americas imported about 1.68 GW, 1.64 GW, and 1.54 GW, respectively.
Unlike May, exports rebounded across all five regions in June, though recovery levels varied. Shipments to the Middle East increased by around 92% MoM, followed by Africa (52%), the Americas (31%), Asia Pacific (24%), and Europe (9%). Of the 3.35 GW MoM increase in June, Pakistan contributed approximately 0.93 GW, the Middle East 0.81 GW, and Africa 0.56 GW, together accounting for nearly 70% of the gain. The rebound was driven mainly by policy-led front-loading and utility-scale project deliveries rather than a broad-based recovery in global demand.
Europe
In June 2026, China exported approximately 7.07 GW of PV modules to Europe, up 9% MoM, the weakest growth among the five major regions. Total exports to Europe reached 52.07 GW in January–June 2026. The Netherlands led monthly imports in the region at 2.82 GW in June, followed by Belgium (0.56 GW), Slovenia (0.47 GW), Italy (0.46 GW), and Spain (0.42 GW). Notably, Germany rebounded to 0.40 GW from May’s 0.20 GW, while Italy nearly doubled its imports. In contrast, Spain declined from 0.61 GW to 0.42 GW, reflecting uneven pace of procurement across the region.
Europe’s modest June recovery appears more consistent with restocking after prior channel destocking rather than a meaningful improvement in end-market demand. Key factors to monitor include negative electricity prices and grid-integration constraints in high-penetration markets, PV curtailment and storage deployment, the pace of EU local manufacturing and procurement policy implementation, and whether cost increases following the removal of China’s export tax rebate can be stably absorbed by European buyers. The stability of import volumes will depend on distributor inventory levels, progress in power purchase agreements (PPA) and storage deployment, and the evolution of EU trade and localization requirements for Chinese clean-technology products.
Asia-pacific
China exported about 5.51 GW of PV modules to Asia-Pacific in June 2026, up 24% MoM, bringing cumulative exports in January–June to approximately 41.10 GW. Pakistan surged to become the largest export destination at around 1.76 GW, more than doubling from 0.83 GW in May. Australia ranked second at 0.79 GW, followed by the Philippines (0.68 GW), Thailand (0.44 GW), and Japan (0.35 GW).
The unusual surge in Pakistan’s import volume in June was driven by expectations ahead of the FY2026–27 federal budget. The market anticipated an increase in General Sales Tax (GST) on imported PV modules from 10% to 18%, leading distributors to front-load purchases and temporarily withhold inventory, which caused both stockpiling and supply shortages across channels. However, the proposed tax increase was ultimately not included in the June Finance Bill, and the GST rate remained at 10%. As a result, a significant portion of June shipments likely reflects channel inventory built on expectations that ultimately did not materialize, raising the risk of a correction in import volumes in Q3.
Mature markets such as Australia and Japan maintained stable procurement patterns. The Philippines continued strong momentum, with shipments rising from 0.44 GW to 0.68 GW, supported by resilient rooftop and C&I demand amid higher electricity prices and ongoing supply constraints. In other Southeast Asian markets, module procurement weakened as export routes to the U.S. became increasingly restricted.
Americas
In June 2026, China exported approximately 1.54 GW of PV modules to the Americas, up 31% MoM, bringing cumulative H1 exports to about 12.68 GW. Brazil remained the largest market, importing around 0.67 GW, followed by Mexico (0.19 GW), Colombia (0.12 GW), Chile (0.12 GW), and Guatemala (0.11 GW). Brazil’s imports rebounded from 0.39 GW in May to 0.67 GW, serving as the main driver of the Americas’ recovery this month. However, overall volumes remained below the same period last year, suggesting limited regional recovery momentum. Key factors to watch include Brazil’s distributed-generation demand, project execution in Chile and Colombia, and whether U.S. restrictions on China’s PV supply chain will expand further.
The Middle East
In June 2026, China exported approximately 1.68 GW of PV modules to the Middle East, up 92% MoM—the strongest rebound among the five regions—bringing cumulative H1 exports to about 9.84 GW. Key importers were Saudi Arabia (0.58 GW), the UAE (0.28 GW), Israel (0.19 GW), Yemen (0.14 GW), and Jordan (0.13 GW).
Saudi Arabia’s imports increased from 0.19 GW in May to 0.58 GW in June, while the UAE rose from 0.06 GW to 0.28 GW; the two countries together drove the majority of the region’s monthly growth. The region largely relies on utility-scale and Independent Power Producer (IPP) projects, with procurement concentrated in specific delivery windows, leading to significant monthly volatility. The 2026 pattern—strong volumes in January–February, a low point in March–May, and a June rebound—is more consistent with the effects of phased deliveries and customs timing than a shift in underlying demand. In H2, attention should focus on tender activity in Saudi Arabia and potential shipment concentration in major UAE projects.
Africa
In June 2026, China exported approximately 1.64 GW of PV modules to Africa, up 52% MoM, bringing cumulative H1 exports to about 12.53 GW. Africa remained the fastest-growing region in H1. South Africa ranked first in June at approximately 0.50 GW, followed by Egypt (0.30 GW), Nigeria (0.24 GW), Sudan (0.11 GW), and Algeria (0.09 GW).
The underlying drivers of Africa’s module demand remain unchanged, including electrification gaps, off-grid and microgrid deployment, backup power requirements, and energy costs, all of which support medium- to long-term growth. However, a more notable development this month was in the cell segment, as Africa now plays a dual role as both an end market and an emerging module assembly hub.
Cell exports
In June 2026, China exported approximately 5.95 GW of PV cells, marking another monthly low for the year. The regional composition shifted markedly: Asia-Pacific remained the largest destination at approximately 3.33 GW, but its share fell from 67% in May to around 56%. Africa imported approximately 1.76 GW, lifting its share to around 30%, while the Middle East imported approximately 0.80 GW. Exports to the Americas and Europe were at approximately 0.03 GW each.
By single country, Indonesia remained the largest destination at approximately 1.67 GW, though China’s exports to Indonesia fell by around 44% from 2.96 GW in May. It was followed by the Philippines, Türkiye, Ethiopia, and Kenya at approximately 0.95 GW, 0.47 GW, 0.33 GW, and 0.32 GW, respectively.
Three structural shifts in cell exports in June warrant attention.
I. Exports to India fell sharply from 1.02 GW to 0.16 GW, a decline of 84% MoM. India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) confirmed that projects commissioned from June 1, 2026, must use domestically manufactured cells listed under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II. This timing aligns with the observed inflection in customs data, making June the first full month in which the policy materially constrained Chinese PV cell imports. However, India’s domestic cell capacity remains insufficient. According to InfoLink, India is expected to exceed 200 GW of module capacity by the end of 2026, corresponding to just 46 GW of domestic TOPCon cell capacity–a structural supply gap unlikely to close in the near term. A July 18 memorandum introduced a transition period through December 31, 2026, for net-metering and Open Access projects. Utility-scale and government-tendered projects remain excluded and continue to be subject to the ALMM domestic cell requirement from June 1, 2026. Whether India’s import volumes partially recover from July onward will be a key test of the policy’s actual effectiveness.
II. Exports to Indonesia declined by approximately 44%, while shipments to the Americas nearly disappeared. As the largest destination for Chinese PV cells, Indonesia’s demand is closely linked to module exports to the U.S. market. On April 23, the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) issued preliminary antidumping (AD) determinations on cells from India, Indonesia, and Laos, requiring cash deposits at the preliminary stage. This significantly worsened the economics of U.S.-bound shipments from Indonesian module producers, reducing cell demand. The Americas’ drop from 0.82 GW in May to 0.03 GW in June reflects this impact.
III. Africa’s PV cell imports have changed significantly. In 1H26, the region imported about 11.58 GW of Chinese PV cells, up from 0.84 GW in the same period last year—an increase of more than thirteen times. This level is now close to Africa’s 12.53 GW of module imports over the same period. The scale suggests demand alone is insufficient to explain the trend. Instead, it points to a shift in module assembly capacity toward markets such as Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Kenya, which combine lower exposure to U.S. tariffs with available engineering labor. June flows—Ethiopia (0.33 GW), Kenya (0.32 GW), Ghana (0.30 GW), Djibouti (0.24 GW), and Egypt (0.23 GW)—reinforce this pattern. Türkiye is emerging under a similar dynamic, importing 0.47 GW in June and 2.05 GW in 1H26.
Policy and market dynamics in June
Placing the June data in the broader context of 1H26 highlights three key trends.
I. The rebound in module exports should not be viewed as a demand recovery. Although June exports increased by approximately 24% MoM, they remained about 20% lower YoY. Cumulative growth in 1H26 also eased to around 1%, down from roughly 5% in the first five months. The increase was concentrated in a few drivers: of the 3.35 GW monthly gain, nearly 70% came from pre-budget front-loading in Pakistan, project deliveries in the Middle East, and inventory restocking in Africa. Europe, the largest regional market, contributed only about 0.56 GW. The May low point reflected some overshooting following the removal of China’s export VAT rebates, while the June recovery was largely event-driven rather than demand-driven and therefore lacks sustained momentum. Pakistan’s expected GST increase was not implemented, leaving the market vulnerable to inventory destocking in Q3. The Middle East delivery cycle is also unlikely to remain strong on a monthly basis. We maintain our view that non-Chinese markets are still adjusting to higher costs from rebate removal. Mature markets and price-sensitive markets remain in a correction phase, while emerging markets still offer some support. As a result, average export volumes in H2 are expected to be lower than in H1.
II. PV cell exports are shifting from heavy reliance on Southeast Asia toward a more diversified, multi-node structure, even as total volumes decline. Cumulative exports reached 59.76 GW in 1H26, up 37% YoY, with growth concentrated in Q1. Volumes declined sequentially through Q2, falling below prior-year levels in June. Regionally, Asia-Pacific’s share fell from 85% in January to 56% in June, while Africa and the Middle East gained share. This reflects two concurrent developments. First, India’s ALMM List-II requirements and the U.S. preliminary anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) determinations on imports from Indonesia and Laos are shutting down the established “Chinese cells–Southeast Asian assembly–U.S. exports” pathway. Second, new assembly hubs are emerging rapidly in Africa and Türkiye. The former is driving an immediate decline in volumes, while the latter reflects a medium-term shift in trade routes. The timing gap between these factors primarily explains the drop in total cell exports in June. For Chinese cell manufacturers, this does not necessarily indicate a complete loss of demand, but it will require adjustments to customer portfolios, payment-term risk, and logistics costs.
III. Policy uncertainty in the U.S. market remains a key variable for H2. Following requests from respondents, the U.S. DOC postponed its final AD/CVD determinations on cells and modules from India, Indonesia, and Laos to no later than September 10, 2026, and extended provisional measures from four to six months. The U.S. International Trade Commission set the final phase schedule in May, with injury determinations expected in late October. If affirmative, AD/CVD orders will be issued within seven days.
The focus in H2 will gradually shift to whether new assembly hubs can absorb the volumes displaced from established trade routes, and how the ongoing reconfiguration of the global supply chain may further reshape the regional composition of China’s exports.
