Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | Hardy He |
| Updated | June 16, 2026 |
Supply-demand imbalance persists; the energy-efficiency standard set to break the price-competition spiral
The PV industry is undergoing a deep structural adjustment. Supply-demand imbalances, excess capacity, and elevated inventories have slowed capacity rationalization. Coupled with downward pressure on end-market demand, these factors are pushing companies across the value chain to accelerate technology iteration and strengthen their core competitive advantages.
The market’s self-regulating mechanism has fallen short of expectations, as large volumes of inefficient and outdated capacity have remained stubbornly in place, leaving the industry’s structural overcapacity problem unresolved.
Global PV capacity across all segments exceeded 1,000 GW in 2023, and the industry’s supply-demand ratio has persistently hovered near 2x over the past two years. The ratio could break above 2x at certain points during the year. A review of past PV industry cycles shows that the severe overcapacity phases in 2012 and 2018 both relied on policy guidance to drive capacity exits and structural optimization. The current supply-demand imbalance is even more pronounced than in those earlier cycles. The forthcoming mandatory energy-efficiency grading standards for PV modules and inverters, expected to be released in the near term, could accelerate the exit of outdated and inefficient capacity through minimum energy-efficiency thresholds.
Early signs of supply-demand imbalance began to emerge across the PV supply chain in 2024: disorderly capacity expansion pushed inventories higher, while product prices continued to decline under sustained pressure. To address structural overcapacity, Chinese authorities quickly initiated the standard-development project for the mandatory national standard—Minimum Allowable Values of Energy Efficiency and Energy Efficiency Grades for Crystalline Silicon PV Modules and Inverters. This marked the beginning of a deeper industry reshuffling cycle. Within six months of the standard-development project’s approval, several central and local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) launched large-scale centralized module tenders, generally setting a 23.8% conversion-efficiency threshold for n-type high-efficiency modules.
In June 2026, after nearly two years of public consultation, industrywide discussion, and stakeholder negotiations, the text of this mandatory national standard has been largely finalized, with only the final stage remaining before official release and implementation. In the same month, the consultation draft of the industry standard Classification and Grading of PV Products—Part 1: PV Modules was also released for public comment, further refining and tightening the grading rules for high-efficiency modules and raising entry requirements for high-efficiency supply across the industry.
Efficiency thresholds define the survival line, separating winners from losers in capacity rationalization
TOPCon 1.0 is the early baseline n-type technology, with leading manufacturers now achieving mainstream power levels of 620-630 W.
TOPCon 2.0 further integrates edge passivation and Poly finger technologies, increasing module power to 635-645 W.
TOPCon 3.0 builds on TOPCon 2.0 by incorporating technologies such as multi-cut, shingling, and rear-side busbar bending. Module power can reach 645-655 W, with bifaciality further improving to as high as 90%.
As another n-type technology, BC modules can still maintain mainstream power levels above 650 W even as BC manufacturers significantly cut costs.
By contrast, HJT has seen a slower pace of mass-production efficiency improvements. Its current mainstream module power is broadly comparable to TOPCon 1.0, leaving a clear gap with TOPCon 3.0 and BC.
Based on the above energy efficiency standard and tender requirements from China’s central and local SOEs, TOPCon modules must reach at least 23.6% efficiency to meet first-tier requirements. The industry standard points to even stricter thresholds, requiring module efficiency above 24%, which can only be met by TOPCon 3.0 and BC technologies.
Based on InfoLink’s statistics, by the end of May, the capacities of TOPCon incorporating Poly finger and edge passivation technologies had exceeded 200 GW and 210 GW, respectively. This indicates that TOPCon 2.0 and 3.0 capacity deployments have surpassed 200 GW, with TOPCon 3.0 alone reaching 90 GW. Having completed equipment tendering, this capacity is expected to be commissioned gradually in 2H26. Meanwhile, as manufacturers expand BC capacity through capacity replacement, BC capacity is conservatively projected to reach 95 GW by the end of 2026, with an upside potential of around 115 GW.
In terms of capacity, manufacturers show clear differences in their high-efficiency technology deployment. BC, the current leader in module efficiency, will benefit from the energy efficiency standard. For TOPCon, although it has remained the mainstream technology in recent years, its high market share also means some manufacturers still hold sizable low-efficiency capacity. Some manufacturers have relatively large TOPCon 1.0 capacity and will need to accelerate upgrades toward higher-efficiency technologies. Jinko and JA Solar have made stronger progress in high-efficiency technologies and hold sufficient high-efficiency capacity, leaving them under relatively lower phase-out pressure. For HJT, capacity deployment has remained stagnant due to constraints in both cost and efficiency.
Reflecting on past headwinds, looking ahead to a new phase of growth
The relevant document has yet to be implemented, but some downstream tenders have already adopted its requirements. Against the backdrop of industry overcapacity and pressure on corporate survival, once the mandatory national standard is released and enforced, it will effectively set a clear “survival threshold” for part of the industry’s production capacity. It will redefine competition and guide the PV industry away from low-quality, low-price competition toward high-efficiency, high-quality development. High-efficiency modules are expected to command price premiums and rapidly expand their market share, while low-efficiency ones will face mounting price pressure and accelerated capacity contraction.
Ultimately, the PV industry will move beyond unrestrained capacity expansion and enter a new stage of high-quality development centered on efficiency and value creation.
At this critical point of industry volatility, every strategic decision matters. As the main battleground for this round of capacity rationalization, c-Si is taking the lead in advancing high-efficiency technologies. The key question is when perovskite tandem technology will be ready to take over.
InfoLink’s Perovskite Technology and Market Insights, and New Technology Market Report provide continued in-depth analysis of both the perovskite and c-Si segments, helping companies capture near-term decision-making windows while supporting long-term strategic planning.
