China's supply chain outlook turns bearish; non-China module prices tick up near term

Polysilicon

Polysilicon order volumes have continued to decline this week, with a few low-priced offers failing to materialize into transactions. Spot market activities have nearly come to a standstill. At present, market activity is primarily driven futures-spot traders; however, given the relatively small transaction volumes, these deals are not yet included in InfoLink’s price collection.

The core pressure stems from weak demand outlook for April and May. Midstream procurement has slowed further, with only a small number of manufacturers restocking in modest volumes. There is no short-term rigid demand, and some previously agreed orders have even been canceled and renegotiated. Buyers’ acceptance of polysilicon prices above RMB 40/kg has dropped sharply.

For polysilicon producers, market conditions are likely to become even more challenging in April and May. Shipment volumes have remained low for several months, while overall polysilicon inventories continue to build; some manufacturers are no longer able to withstand the pressure and have been forced to sell at lower prices to secure cash flow.

Current market conditions have made it increasingly difficult for producers to maintain high polysilicon prices. Strategies among producers have begun to diverge. Leading manufacturers are still withholding quotes and shifting inventory digestion to downstream tolling arrangements to ease pressure. Meanwhile, some producers can no longer afford prolonged shipment suspensions and have started to reassess their pricing strategies. Under financial pressure, small- and medium-sized manufacturers have negotiated at lower levels, with quotes declining to RMB 35-36/kg. Buyers continue to probe the pricing floor and push prices downward, while offer prices from futures-spot traders also disrupt the market, with price expectations hovering around RMB 32-33/kg. The newly quoted low prices this week have yet to see transactions.

Price adjustments this week: 

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 39-43/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 38-40/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 40-43/kg

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Malaysia-made polysilicon have edged up slightly, with a further increase anticipated in late March. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued to slip slightly this week, with no clear signs of stabilization. The overall price levels continue to move lower. Given falling upstream polysilicon prices, wafer prices are still adjusting in line with costs in the short term, resulting in generally soft prices.

By wafer format:

• 183N wafers are priced at RMB 1.00–1.05/piece this week. Although a few transactions have been concluded at RMB 1.05/piece since March 19, mainstream deals have declined to RMB 1.03/piece. Some direct procurement contracts are settled at RMB 1.00/piece. While the low end has occasionally reached RMB 0.98/piece, these are mostly post-adjustment prices and have not yet become mainstream contract levels.

• 210RN wafers are traded at RMB 1.10–1.15/piece this week, with mainstream transactions at RMB 1.13/piece. Overall deal prices are gradually converging toward RMB 1.10/piece, with some post-adjustment transactions already falling below this level.

• 210N wafer prices are at RMB 1.30–1.35/piece. Most manufacturers have lowered their quotes to RMB 1.33/piece this week, with prices trending downward in line with cost movements.

From a supply–demand perspective, upstream polysilicon prices remain under negotiation, with further downside at the low end still possible, which may continue to drag down wafer costs. On the demand side, demand outside China may weaken after April, leading to a more cautious market outlook. With no meaningful recovery in end-market demand, price support remains insufficient. Overall, given further downside potential on the cost side and the lack of a meaningful recovery in demand momentum, wafer prices are expected to remain low in the coming week. 
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.39/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.38-0.40/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.39/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.38–0.41/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.38/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.38-0.39/W

With upstream polysilicon, wafer, and silver prices declining, cost support for cells has weakened rapidly. Short-term procurement demand ahead of the export tax rebate cancellation has largely subsided, while Chinese domestic demand remains sluggish, leading to a continued downward shift in the market price midpoint.

As of March 25, prices across all formats have reached as low as RMB 0.37/W. Given the gloomy April outlook for the cell market, manufacturers may cut production.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P drops to USD 0.045/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.045–0.047/W. In line with falling silver prices and wafer costs, 182P cell prices have also decreased to around RMB 0.34/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price of 183N from China has fallen to USD 0.053/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.051–0.055/W. As the cancellation of export tax rebates approaches, demand has weakened significantly due to shipping and delivery timing. Some module producers outside China remain on the sidelines, awaiting updated cell price quotes for April.
 

Module

Module prices in China are still struggling to hold steady this week. Despite market rumors that leading manufacturers may raise quotes, there has been no effective follow-through, and such increases are unlikely to materialize amid current market sentiment. At present, TOPCon module transaction prices are at RMB 0.68–0.70/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.83/W for distributed projects.

TOPCon module prices outside China continue to adjust in response to market changes. Influenced by expectations of export tax rebate policy adjustments, prices in multiple regions have moved upward, bringing the overall average to around USD 0.11/W.

In Europe, rising natural gas prices—driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—have further stimulated demand for residential PV and PV-plus-storage systems. Currrently, in most markets, distribution and project quotes are at USD 0.12–0.13/W, with further upside expected after April.

Chinese domestic end-market demand remains subdued, although some projects have shown marginal improvement from earlier contraction. Against this backdrop, market reactions are mixed. On one hand, manufacturers are tightening pricing strategies due to stricter internal management and profit performance assessments, with significantly tighter approval for low-priced orders. On the other hand, while some players are inclined to lower prices, the overall pace of price adjustments remains cautious under current approval mechanisms, placing pressure on front-line sales.

Meanwhile, markets outside China have become the primary shipment destination in March. Although the quotes reflected in InfoLink’s spot price updates are still based on tax-exclusive, current-week delivery prices and have yet to reflect the April export tax rebate adjustment, expectations surrounding the policy have driven a “buy on rising prices” sentiment. As a result, delivery prices in some regions have increased, particularly over the past two weeks.

However, given the still-weak price support in China, the sustainability of this upward trend remains to be seen, with potential downside risks existing after April.