Cell price uptrend takes hold amid demand momentum outside China

*InfoLink publishes spot price based on prices at which orders are delivered and new orders signed from Thursday of the previous week to this Wednesday.(8.6-8.12)
 

Polysilicon

The polysilicon market remains in a wait-and-see mode this week, with major producers continuing to withhold quotes and shipments. As policy expectations continue to strengthen, market sentiment has improved further from last week. Current market talk suggests that price expectations for chunk polysilicon have risen to RMB 40–42/kg, while those for granular polysilicon are around RMB 37–38/kg. However, current quoted prices are still largely based on market rumors and producers’ plans to raise prices, while actual transaction levels remain unclear. Whether these prices can be materialized remains to be seen. As the outcome of cost-related policy discussions has yet to be finalized, the market is awaiting further policy signals. Consequently, producers continue to withhold quotes and sales this week, maintaining a wait-and-see approach.

Looking back at July, polysilicon transaction prices continued to decline, reaching around RMB 31/kg before stabilizing amid rising policy expectations. Some downstream buyers undertook gradual restocking in mid-July due to concerns over policy changes and price volatility. However, buyers continued to procure largely on an as-needed basis and in small volumes. Entering August, strengthening policy expectations have led polysilicon producers to adopt firmer pricing attitudes, with the market gradually shifting from low-price destocking to quote withholding. However, a clear divergence has emerged between price expectations and prior actual transaction levels. Until new deals are concluded, the RMB 40–42/kg range for chunk polysilicon should not be considered the prevailing market transaction price level.

On the supply side, maintenance at some producers in August is expected to continue into September. However, some manufacturers have ramped up production amid the wet season, keeping overall utilization rates on an upward trend. Global polysilicon output in August is estimated to exceed 120,000 MT, including approximately 114,000 MT in China. With production remaining elevated and prior inventories not yet meaningfully reduced, polysilicon producers remain under inventory pressure. Total inventory, including downstream holdings, has reached approximately 560,000 MT, excluding spot and futures trader inventories. From a supply-demand perspective, conditions have not yet improved sufficiently to support a rapid price increase.
 

Wafer

Although the market has seen repeated signals of potential wafer price increases this week, overall prices remain broadly at last week's levels. Prices for 183N wafers have been firmer, with some manufacturers raising offers to RMB 0.83/piece since late last week. Given expectations of further increases, some suppliers have begun controlling the pace of shipments, and a few have suspended shipments.

Starting noon on August 12, some manufacturers have raised quotes to RMB 0.90/piece for 183N, RMB 1.00/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.20/piece for 210N wafers, triggering a new round of price negotiations. Some suppliers have begun accepting orders, with 183N wafers at RMB 0.90/piece showing stronger transaction momentum. Recent industry meetings may provide short-term support if they signal production controls or price stabilization measures.

In addition to policy expectations and recent industry meetings, the price recovery has been supported by cell stocking ahead of the latest U.S. Section 232 measures, which has lifted wafer procurement. At the same time, certain projects in India may continue using China-made cells through year-end, providing solid support for 183N wafer demand and reinforcing recent price resilience.

In the short to medium term, as new quotes gradually translate into transactions, trading volumes are expected to rise this week. Prices are likely to remain largely stable in the near term, with potential for a modest increase. Whether price gains can be sustained will depend on the extent end-market demand recovery, the actual pickup in transaction volumes, and the strength of subsequent policy implementation following industry meetings.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.29/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.285-0.3/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.28/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.28-0.3/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.285/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.28-0.3/W

Driven by higher upstream material costs and rising silver prices, as well as stockpiling demand following the announcement of U.S. Section 232 measures, cell prices have risen significantly this week amid multiple supportive factors. Chinese manufacturers serving export markets have limited shipment volumes and actively raised prices, with leading manufacturers gradually delivering cells of various formats at prices above RMB 0.30/W, mainly for shipments to markets outside China and a small number of orders from Chinese module manufacturers. Notably, integrated module makers remain relatively reluctant to accept the current cell price increases. Overall, an upward trend in cell prices for August has largely taken hold.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P stays flat at USD 0.043/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.043-0.045/W. P-type cells have also benefited from Section 232-driven demand. However, unlike n-type cells, their recent high premium has delayed price adjustments this week. The market still expects further increases, with prices for future deliveries likely to rise accordingly.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has increased to USD 0.043/W this week, with the price range being at USD 0.041-0.044/W. As mentioned above, Chinese manufacturers serving export markets have limited shipment volumes and broadly renegotiated prices this week. Deliveries at previous low prices have been fewer, and a clear upward price trend is expected next week.
 

Module

Prices in China remain largely stable this week. Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC products, the average prices in China have been revised down to RMB 0.803/W. Actual delivery prices currently stand at approximately RMB 0.76–0.80/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.81–0.90/W for distributed projects.

Recent price trends have shifted, with module manufacturers preparing price increases amid silver price volatility and higher cell quotes. However, rising transaction and delivery prices are expected to encounter strong resistance.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June and remain at USD 5,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S. market, the latest Section 232 measures announced on August 6 is expected to impact pricing trends. The minimum import price (MIP) requirement is likely to drive price increases for both imported and domestically produced goods. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W.