Industry meeting fuels expectations of upstream price increases

Polysilicon

In July, the overall transaction price level continued to trend lower. After falling to around RMB 31/kg, however, prices stabilized amid policy developments. Some downstream buyers, concerned about policy uncertainty, restocked in mid-July, though most still continued to procure only on an as-needed basis, keeping purchase volumes low to mitigate risk. As the policy outlook remains uncertain this week, market participants have adopted a strong wait-and-see stance. Producers have suspended offers for the time being as the market awaits potential developments tomorrow that could support prices, with some considering raising prices across the board. Spot prices therefore remain unchanged from last week for now, with mainstream prices as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 30-32/kg

• Mixed-lot polysilicon: RMB 30-31/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 30.5-31/kg

On the production side, maintenance at manufacturers that began in August is expected to continue into September. However, as production ramp-ups during the wet season keep overall utilization rates on an upward trend, global polysilicon output in August is estimated to exceed 120,000 MT, including approximately 114,000 MT in China.

Amid elevated production levels, continued inventory accumulation is adding pressure on producers. Total inventories, including downstream holdings but not yet counting those held by spot-futures traders, have reached as high as 560,000 MT. Until inventories are effectively drawn down and downstream utilization rates and end-market demand show a clear recovery, the market will continue to lack the fundamental momentum needed to support a price rebound.

Therefore, supply-demand fundamentals alone currently provide limited support for higher transaction prices. InfoLink expects polysilicon prices to fluctuate at low levels in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall back to RMB 30–32/kg, while the overall average price may break below RMB 30/kg, with the possibility of an overshoot. The key variable, however, remains the implementation of measures including industry cost floors and energy consumption standards. If the policy is strictly enforced, it could accelerate structural adjustments and support industry recovery. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may be deadlocked at RMB 31–32/kg. Any further increase will depend on whether policy measures provide sufficiently strong support.
 

Wafer

This week, wafer prices have stabilized for the time being, trading sideways at low levels. Mainstream average transaction prices remain at RMB 0.80/piece for 183N wafers, RMB 0.90/piece for 210RN wafers, and RMB 1.10/piece for 210N wafers.

As a series of industry meetings have taken place for the past week, market expectations for stronger upstream price support have increased. On top of this, wafer producers gradually implemented their August production-cut plans, strengthening their willingness to hold prices firm compared with earlier periods. Whether prices have met the conditions for a rebound remains to be seen. However, with mainstream products already trading below cash costs, the scope for further declines has narrowed.

By format, demand for 183N wafers has recovered again recently, supported by some projects in India that are allowed to continue using China-made cells through year-end, giving 183N prices relatively stronger resistance to declines. By contrast, low-price transactions for 210RN wafers show relatively notable divergence. Although low prices across all formats are generally around RMB 0.02/piece below mainstream levels, contracts involving special terms or framework agreements may still be concluded at even lower prices, showing some discrepancy from sporadic market transactions.

By the end of July, inventories declined to some extent with previously low-priced volumes gradually coming to market and demand from markets outside China providing additional support. Amid expectations of a future price rebound, some producers have also become slightly more active in procurement this week. However, overall inventories remain relatively high, while demand has yet to see a notable increase. With the details of the relevant industry meetings and the direction of subsequent implementation not fully clear yet, wafer prices are expected to continue trading sideways at low levels in the near term, with the possibility of a modest rebound.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W 

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.26/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.255-0.265/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.265/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.26-0.265/W

Amid the industry meetings, cell manufacturers have widely suspended price quotes this week and reduced deliveries of low-priced orders. Meanwhile, rising silver prices also support the cell market, pushing the overall transaction price level higher.

Manufacturers are still awaiting the outcomes of the meetings. Tier-1 specialized cell producers are planning price increases of RMB 0.005–0.01/W across formats, but acceptance among downstream module manufacturers and end-markets remains uncertain. Subsequent price movements will depend closely on policy developments, which warrant close monitoring.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P stays flat at USD 0.043/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.043-0.045/W. The partial relaxation of India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) requirements has unlocked some demand. Supply in China remains dominated by tolling volumes, while overall prices have yet to show notable fluctuations.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.040/W this week, with the price range being at USD 0.039-0.040/W. Prices for 183N wafers have stabilized due to lower supply in China and a modest demand recovery from India. As various supportive factors continue to take hold, overall prices may move higher next week.
 

Module

Prices in China remain unchanged this week. Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC products, InfoLink has added an “182 × 182–210 mm BC modules (RMB)” section starting this week to provide readers with a price reference and reflect the overall average price level of BC modules in China. Corresponding USD prices for markets outside China will be introduced once BC products achieve sufficient market penetration and the available data become adequately representative.

Actual delivery prices for BC modules currently stand at approximately RMB 0.76–0.80/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.81–0.90/W for distributed projects.

On the supply-demand side, demand from ground-mounted projects continued to ramp up in China in August, driving a slight increase in module production schedules. China’s monthly module output is estimated to reach 37–38 GW this month, up about 1–2 GW from last month, while global module production plans are around 47–49 GW.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. The decline in China’s module prices in recent months reflects persistently weak end-market demand and a lack of meaningful support for market prices, as well as volatility in raw material prices.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June and are set to exceed USD 6,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W.