Cell prices surge, but gains may moderate

*InfoLink publishes spot price based on prices at which orders are delivered and new orders signed from Thursday of the previous week to this Wednesday.(8.13-8.19)

Polysilicon

This week, the polysilicon market is gradually emerging from the previous suspension of price quotes, with some producers resuming offers. Recycled mono-grade polysilicon is currently quoted at around RMB 43/kg, while granular polysilicon is quoted at around RMB 40–41/kg, both markedly higher than previous levels. 

However, the price increases remain largely driven by policy expectations and cost support, while underlying supply-demand fundamentals have yet to show any significant improvement. Polysilicon inventories continue to rise, and most major downstream manufacturers still hold sufficient inventories to support near-term production. As a result, acceptance of higher-priced polysilicon remains limited. Overall procurement strategies remain conservative, with purchases limited to small volumes on an as-needed basis. 

Actual transactions of recycled mono-grade polysilicon remain limited this week, with observed purchases coming mainly from distributors and futures-spot traders. This indirectly confirms that downstream wafer manufacturers remain reluctant to accept current price quotes. Most are still negotiating orders and are expected to remain on the sidelines in the near term, postponing purchases until price and market trends become clearer. Therefore, RMB 43/kg remains largely a producer offer rather than a mainstream transaction price.

For granular polysilicon, a small number of orders were concluded last week, while a new round of orders remains under negotiation this week and is expected to be gradually finalized over the next 2–3 days. 

Overall, actual transactions currently consist mainly of small-volume orders and purchases by intermediaries. Downstream wafer manufacturers have yet to undertake any notable concentrated restocking. Whether higher quotes can translate into large-volume transactions therefore remains to be seen.

From a supply-demand perspective, current polysilicon market fundamentals continue to provide relatively limited support for price increases. On the supply side, earlier maintenance shutdowns and capacity adjustments have yet to result in any notable inventory drawdown, with polysilicon inventories continuing to build. Meanwhile, downstream manufacturers still hold a certain level of feedstock inventories. As neither end-market demand nor wafer utilization rates have shown any significant improvement, downstream buyers have no urgent need to chase higher prices to replenish inventories in the near term. Therefore, the latest price increases remain driven more by policy expectations, cost floors, and producers’ willingness to hold firm on prices than by an actual reversal in supply-demand dynamics.

Looking ahead, polysilicon prices are expected to remain caught between policy support and supply-demand pressure in the near term. Whether current offers of RMB 43/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon and RMB 40–41/kg for granular polysilicon can hold will depend on whether downstream wafer manufacturers begin accepting the new prices and conclude transactions at a meaningful scale over the next one to two weeks. If no stronger policy support emerges while polysilicon inventories continue to build, the ability of elevated offers to translate into actual transactions may remain limited, and a gap between transaction prices and producer offers may persist.

Wafer

This week, wafer prices surged, with 183N posting particularly strong gains. Overall average prices are as follows: RMB 1.12/piece for 183N, RMB 1.15/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.20/piece for 210N.

Driven by demand from markets outside China, 183N wafer supply has tightened recently, with prices rising to RMB 1.10–1.12/piece. Shipments have been brisk, and shortages have emerged in the market. Some manufacturers are therefore considering adjustments to their production mix by shifting some furnaces to 183N production. Despite this willingness to adjust supply, the tight supply-demand balance for 183N is unlikely to ease quickly in the near term, and prices may rise further.

By comparison, although 210RN prices have increased in tandem, actual transaction activity has been somewhat less brisk than for 183N. As cell manufacturers have gradually come to accept wafer prices of around RMB 1.15/piece, transactions have also shifted toward higher price levels recently. However, relatively ample supply has kept its gains below those of 183N for now.

Transactions for 210N, on the other hand, have been relatively limited this week, as the market remains in a new round of negotiations over prices and tolling fees. Prices have largely held at around RMB 1.20/piece, with near-term trading conditions remaining steadier than for the other two formats.

Looking ahead, wafer prices are expected to remain firm. However, as prices rise rapidly across the supply chain, whether the upward momentum can be sustained will depend on the ability of downstream buyers and end markets to absorb the increases.

Cell prices in China

Average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells have risen sharply this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.36/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.35-0.37/W 

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.35/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.34-0.36/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

The Section 232‑driven stockpiling rush continues to support the market this week, with markets outside China remaining the primary source of demand. Shipments are dominated by 183N and 210RN, while 210N sees smaller gains because its demand comes mainly from China. Order visibility for leading cell manufacturers currently extends through late September. However, vertically integrated manufacturers in China have yet to accept higher cell prices on a large scale, while customers in markets outside China—mainly Indian module manufacturers—have adopted a wait-and-see stance toward the increases. Cell price gains may therefore moderate next week.

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has risen to USD 0.047/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.045-0.050/W. While Section 232-driven demand is also benefiting p-type cells, as markets outside China gradually shift toward n-type products, end-market demand for 182P remains subdued and price gains are muted.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.053/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.052-0.055/W. Leading cell manufacturers in China continue to push up export offers to markets outside China this week, which in turn drives substantial premiums for cells exported from Southeast Asia to India. However, as noted above, customers in markets outside China have begun to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Unless upstream costs in China rise significantly, demand-side factors alone are unlikely to sustain the current pace of increases, and cell price gains are expected to moderate.

Module

This week, suppliers in China are preparing to raise offers, while prices for actual deliveries remain stable. Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

For BC modules, the average prices in China have been revised downward this week to RMB 0.79/W. Actual delivery prices for BC modules are currently around RMB 0.75–0.77/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.79–0.81/W for distributed projects.

Recent price trends have shifted, with higher wafer and cell offers prompting module manufacturers to prepare for price increases as well. Nevertheless, whether these increases can be realized in actual transactions and deliveries is expected to remain a significant challenge.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices is slightly revised to USD 0.114/W.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

In Europe, prices for ground-mounted and residential modules have been revised slightly downward this week. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

In the U.S. market, the latest Section 232 announcement on August 6 is expected to bring a new shock to price trends. With the minimum import price (MIP) acting as a price floor, both imported and domestically manufactured module prices are expected to rise. For now, market participants remain in wait-and-see mode on U.S.-assembled module prices, which remain at around USD 0.30–0.33/W.