Upstream prices soften again as the market awaits signals from an upcoming regulatory meeting

Polysilicon

Suppliers continue to fulfill previously secured orders this week, while new order intake declined further from last week, with only a few companies securing a new round of contracts. Mainstream prices are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 30-32/kg

• Mixed-lot polysilicon: RMB 30-31/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 30.5-31/kg

In terms of transactions, buyers maintain a cautious procurement strategy, mainly making small-volume purchases, with some focusing on inventory drawdown. The midstream segment remains under pressure. End-market demand has yet to recover meaningfully, and the utilization rate of wafers remains low. Downstream manufacturers are primarily drawing down their existing inventories and making only small-volume purchases to meet immediate needs, with limited willingness to restock. Meanwhile, some leading manufacturers remain in the process of resuming production and ramping up output. The resulting gradual increase in market supply continues to add to polysilicon inventory pressure, further complicating shipment efforts. However, policy uncertainty remains, and most manufacturers are still waiting to see whether any policy changes emerge by the end of the month. Given current market conditions and polysilicon prices already approaching the cash-cost levels of most manufacturers, some producers are considering raising prices across the board to RMB 32/kg. However, until inventories are effectively reduced and downstream utilization rates and end-market demand show a meaningful recovery, the market will continue to lack the fundamental support needed for a price rebound.

Current transaction prices are difficult for the market to sustain; we still expect polysilicon prices to fluctuate at low levels in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall back to RMB 30–32/kg, while the overall average price may break below RMB 30/kg, with the possibility of an overshoot. The key variable remains the implementation of energy consumption standards. If the policy is strictly enforced, it could accelerate structural adjustments and support industry recovery.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices decline further this week, with transaction prices across all formats converging toward the lower levels. Mainstream prices stand at RMB 0.80/piece for 183N, RMB 0.90/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.10/piece for 210N. During the earlier part of last week, a small volume of previous orders at RMB 0.83/piece, RMB 0.93/piece, and RMB 1.13/piece was still delivered as the market transitioned through the price adjustment. Regarding lower-priced transactions, some involve replacement wafers or other special terms, meaning their effective prices may be even lower than this week’s mainstream levels. Notably, prices have dropped below cash-cost levels, limiting manufacturers’ room for further reductions.

Following recent price cuts by some manufacturers, market inquiries and transaction activity have shown a slight recovery. However, supply has yet to contract meaningfully, and preliminary estimates indicate only limited reductions in August production schedules. On one hand, non-Chinese markets continue to provide some demand support. On the other, some manufacturers remain hesitant to cut production, given their focus on maintaining market share. Without clear production controls, voluntary output adjustments are likely to offer only limited near-term price support.

An upcoming meeting may improve industry coordination or policy support, potentially lifting sentiment and providing short-term price support. However, without clarity on the agenda or concrete measures, the market remains in a wait-and-see stance amid ongoing uncertainty over price stability.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W (flat)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.26/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.255-0.265/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.265/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.260-0.265/W (down)

As wafer prices continue to decline, cell production cost floor moves lower, leading to further softening in quotes. Weak demand for 210RN and 210N cells has driven transaction prices lower, with most recent deals signed at RMB 0.255/W and RMB 0.26/W, respectively. For August, Chinese cell producers remain cautious about production cuts, while the market awaits policy signals from upcoming polysilicon and module industry meetings.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has declined to USD 0.043/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.043-0.045/W. The partial relaxation of India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) requirements has unlocked some demand. However, increased p-type cell output from some Chinese manufacturers and diverging wafer prices have softened cell prices.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.040/W this week, with the price range being at USD 0.039-0.040/W. Order intake outside China has shown some improvement from mid-July into August. However, module buyers continue to push for lower prices. Coupled with recent wafer price declines in China, cell production costs have eased accordingly, leaving export cell prices in a stalemate.
 

Module

Module prices in the Chinese market hold steady this week. Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

On the supply-demand side, demand from ground-mounted projects in China has started to pick up gradually in July, driving a corresponding increase in module production schedules. China’s monthly module output is estimated to reach 37–38 GW this month, up about 4–5 GW from last month, while global module production plans have been raised correspondingly to 48–49 GW.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. The decline in China’s module prices in recent months reflects persistently weak end-market demand and a lack of meaningful support for market prices, as well as volatility in raw material prices.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June and are set to exceed USD 6,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W.