Renewed upstream softness pushes cell prices lower

Polysilicon

Only a few new polysilicon orders have been concluded this week. Under financial pressure and weak market conditions, leading manufacturers are engaging in passive sales to generate cash flow. Negotiations have started ahead of the Chinese Qingming Festival, with some deals finalized after the holiday and pending execution. Prices among small- and medium-sized manufacturers remain under pressure. Current price levels have fallen below the cash cost threshold for some medium-sized manufacturers, prompting some producers to carry out maintenance shutdowns in early April to mitigate risks.

Overall, market bargaining sentiment has intensified. Continued low-priced shipments from futures–spot traders have further disrupted market stability. Coupled with expectations of weak demand in April and May, midstream procurement has contracted sharply amid insufficient price support.

Price declines have continued this week. Under bearish sentiment, buyers have further lowered their price expectations, reduced order volumes, and maintained only small-batch procurement.

The overall average acceptable price level (including mixed lots) is expected to remain low at RMB 30–32/kg.

Delivery prices this week:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 35-37/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 33-35/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 34-36/kg

Given current order conditions, delivery prices may slip further by RMB 1–2/kg in the near term.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices were expected to rise again in late March, but materialization fell short of expectations. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued their downward trend this week, pressured by persistent weakness in upstream polysilicon prices, with transaction prices falling further.

Current mainstream transaction prices:

• 183N wafers: RMB 0.93/piece

• 210RN wafers: RMB 1.03/piece

• 210N wafers: RMB 1.23/piece

Although trading activity has improved slightly after the Qingming Festival, overall prices remain extremely weak amid declining costs and insufficient demand support. Market sentiment has yet to show signs of recovery.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Prices land at RMB 0.93–0.98/piece, averaging RMB 0.95/piece. Lower-priced transactions have begun to pick up only since this week, and the mainstream transaction level has gradually shifted downward.

• 210RN: Prices sit at RMB 1.00–1.08/piece this week. While some deals have still been concluded at RMB 1.08/piece since April 2, mainstream prices have fallen to RMB 1.05/piece after the holiday and have recently declined further to RMB 1.03/piece. Some low-end deals have approached RMB 1.00/piece, indicating widening price dispersion and continued downside risk.

• 210N: Prices are at RMB 1.20–1.28/piece, averaging RMB 1.25/piece. However, this level no longer reflects mainstream transaction levels. Bulk order prices have fallen to RMB 1.23/piece, with some negotiated deals even reaching as low as RMB 1.20/piece, suggesting the ongoing process of testing the bottom.

Overall, amid frequent price adjustments and slower transaction follow-through, price divergence has intensified, and the pace of adjustments has accelerated significantly. Combined with persistent wafer inventory pressure, prices are expected to remain weak in the coming week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.35/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.345-0.35/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.35/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.35-0.36/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.34/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.34-0.35/W

As recent wafer prices have gradually declined, cost pressure on cell production has eased. Current cell prices remain slightly above the industry production cost line. However, with April cell production schedules more optimistic than module demand, cell oversupply persists.

As of April 8, some cell manufacturers have further lowered quotes across various formats, although these have yet to materialize. Cell prices are still rapidly converging toward the industry cost line.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P cells has increased to USD 0.049/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.045–0.049/W. It is worth noting that Chinese domestic prices remain flat at RMB 0.34/W. Given that 182P production capacity is extremely low amid steady supply–demand dynamics, export prices have rebounded following the cancellation of the export tax rebate.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has declined to USD 0.052/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.050–0.053/W. Prices have begun to fall in line with declining Chinese domestic costs and weakening demand outside China. The premium of prices in USD over prices in RMB has narrowed. Order visibility for late April appears gloomy, and export prices in USD may face further downside.
 

Module

Module prices in China are still struggling to hold steady this week. Price competition is intense in ground-mounted projects, while distributed generation pricing remains strategically supported; however, some players have begun to lower quotes. At present, TOPCon module transaction prices are at RMB 0.68–0.70/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.80/W for distributed projects.

TOPCon module prices outside China remain largely steady this week. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. In Europe, current price quotes for distribution and ground-mounted projects are at USD 0.12–0.125/W (FOB). For detailed regional spot prices, please refer to the premium version of the weekly price report.

Overall, Chinese domestic end-market demand remains weak, and prices have begun to soften at the margin. However, it is noteworthy that price quote reductions have limited impact on order intake amid sluggish demand; as a result, manufacturers still tend to maintain current quote levels to delay further declines.

Despite near-term strategic price support from most manufacturers, under current market expectations, demand remains weak, while upstream prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells continue to decline, further eroding cost support. Module prices are therefore expected to reach an inflection point in late April, driving further declines in Chinese domestic prices and moderating—or even reversing—upward momentum in some non-China markets.