Polysilicon prices continue to fall, eroding support for downstream prices

Polysilicon

Polysilicon order activity has improved slightly this week. However, buyers remain cautious amid existing inventories and elevated market uncertainty, with procurement still concentrated in small-volume purchases.

Transactions in this round are largely driven by prices falling to previously targeted buyer levels, prompting small-volume procurement to blend with earlier accumulated inventory and lower overall material costs. This does not reflect a demand recovery or a genuine increase in purchasing volumes. Structural supply–demand imbalance persists.

Under cash flow pressure and weak market conditions, polysilicon producers have been forced into passive sales to generate cash inflows, with prices falling below the cash cost line for some mid-tier manufacturers. In response, several producers initiated maintenance shutdowns in early April to mitigate downside risk, while others are considering further production cuts in May.

On the demand side, buyers anticipate continued price declines, with the average price expected to fall further from RMB 32–34/kg toward RMB 30/kg. Weak demand expectations for April–May remain the primary driver, leaving price support limited.

Delivery prices this week:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 35-36/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 33-34/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 34-35/kg

Price declines have moderated this week compared to the prior period.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices were expected to rise again in late March, but materialization fell short of expectations. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued their downward trend this week, pressured by persistent weakness in polysilicon prices, with transaction prices falling further. Current mainstream transaction prices have fallen by 4-5% compared to last week, standing at RMB 0.90/piece for 183N, RMB 1.00/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.20/piece for 210N.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Prices stand at RMB 0.90–0.93/piece this week, with RMB 0.93/piece reflecting late last week’s level and the mainstream shifting to RMB 0.90/piece this week. Despite production cuts following the cancellation of the export tax rebate, weak upstream prices have limited support, and prices remain under pressure.

• 210RN: Prices are at RMB 1.00–1.03/piece this week. Shipments at RMB 1.03/piece have declined since April 9, with orders now concentrated around RMB 1.00/piece. Some negotiations have moved below RMB 1.00/piece, reaching as low as RMB 0.98/piece, though these levels are not yet reflected in official quotes.

• 210N: Prices sit at RMB 1.20–1.23/piece, with RMB 1.23/piece reflecting small-volume deals late last week and the mainstream now at RMB 1.20/piece. As the market continues to soften, buyers are testing prices below RMB 1.20 levels, with inquiries around RMB 1.18/piece, though no mainstream transactions have been concluded at these prices.

Overall, upstream prices and weak demand have driven wafer prices back to last year’s lows. Market sentiment remains subdued, and with April wafer production cuts lagging those in cells, inventory pressure persists with signs of a modest buildup. While expectations for upcoming industry meetings remain, timing is unclear, and uncertainty is high. Near-term price stabilization lacks momentum, and the outlook for next week remains bearish.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices have declined as expected last week, coming in as follows:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.34/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.34-0.345/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.335/W

In line with last week’s trend, the price decline originating from the polysilicon segment has continued to pass through downstream, pushing cell prices lower. The margin window from the lag between cost and price adjustments has largely closed.

Cell prices are now close to the average production cost line, with the pace of decline expected to moderate in the near term. To prevent prices from again threatening cash cost levels, Chinese cell manufacturers are likely to reduce output from late April into May, aiming to curb further deterioration in supply–demand conditions.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.049/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.045–0.049/W, while Chinese domestic prices remain flat at RMB 0.34/W. Tight supply of 182P cells and a gradual shift toward customized products have continued to support price stability.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price of 183N cells from China has declined to USD 0.049/W this week, with a range of USD 0.048–0.050/W. Since late April, persistent oversupply in China has pressured Indian order prices, narrowing the USD premium over RMB. Some suppliers are offering parity with prices in China, with further downside risk in USD prices next week.
 

Module

Module prices in China are still struggling to hold steady this week. Price competition is intense in ground-mounted projects, while distributed generation pricing remains strategically supported; however, some players have begun to lower quotes. At present, TOPCon module transaction prices are at RMB 0.68–0.70/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.80/W for distributed projects.

TOPCon module prices outside China have edged up to USD 0.116/W this week, driven primarily by increases in Europe. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. In Europe, current price quotes for distribution and ground-mounted projects are at USD 0.12–0.125/W (FOB). For detailed regional spot prices, please refer to the premium version of the weekly price report.

Overall, Chinese domestic end-market demand remains weak, and prices have begun to soften at the margin. However, it is noteworthy that price quote reductions have limited impact on order intake amid sluggish demand; as a result, manufacturers still tend to maintain current quote levels to delay further declines.

Despite near-term strategic price support from most manufacturers, under current market expectations, demand remains weak, while upstream prices for polysilicon, wafers, and cells continue to decline, further eroding cost support. Module prices are therefore expected to reach an inflection point in late April, driving further declines in Chinese domestic prices and moderating—or even reversing—upward momentum in some non-China markets.