Polysilicon price declines narrow; distributed module prices soften again

Polysilicon

The impact of meetings addressing anti-price-war efforts and cost floors will still take time to play out, while seller offers have remained stable for several weeks. Some producers have finalized deals; overall price declines have narrowed. The core support still comes from producers’ reluctance to let prices fall below cash costs. Prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 34-36/kg.

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 32-33/kg.

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 34-36/kg, remaining stable.

Polysilicon order signing this week has been dominated by small-volume transactions. Current price stability has encouraged buyers to place restocking orders. New orders for chunk polysilicon have been concluded, while granular polysilicon orders for May are nearly fully booked.

Looking ahead, expectations of weak demand may continue to weigh on market sentiment. With leading producers potentially restarting capacity in late May, prices may face renewed volatility. Polysilicon inventory drawdown remains relatively slow, leaving prices exposed to further downside risk.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation, with some manufacturers already conducting sample testing. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscriber-only information section.
 

Wafer 

Wafer prices have remained largely stable WoW, with mainstream average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N holding at RMB 0.90/piece, RMB 1.00/piece, and RMB 1.20/piece, respectively. That said, some low-end transaction prices have begun to loosen and gradually materialized since last week, with low-end prices now reaching RMB 0.88/piece for 183N, RMB 0.98/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.18/piece for 210N.

Upstream polysilicon prices have recently begun to show signs of decline. Although some wafer manufacturers have sought to signal price support by reducing outsourced production, and the market has also seen some willingness to raise prices, actual price increases remain difficult to implement under current conditions. Market acceptance will be limited if there are only a few manufacturers attempting to push prices higher. Unless major wafer manufacturers subsequently raise quotes collectively in sync, overall price support will remain weak.

As the wet season is coming, further output increases from polysilicon producers cannot be ruled out. If compounded by current inventory pressure, this could leave polysilicon prices at risk of testing lower levels again, indirectly pulling wafer prices down with them. In the short term, however, market prices remain relatively stable. With some price-support signals still emerging, overall prices are expected to stay largely stable even if price hikes fail to materialize.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.33/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.335/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

Between May 15 and 20, silver prices saw another sharp correction, preventing some cell manufacturers’ expected price hikes from materializing this week. Only a few manufacturers managed to raise transaction price ranges across formats by RMB 0.005/W, while 183N saw large-volume deliveries this week after last week’s quote hikes took effect. Overall, however, falling silver prices further capped upside room for cell prices. Prices are expected to remain stable through early June, depending on how market sentiment evolves during the Shanghai trade show (SNEC).
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P rose to USD 0.05/W, with prices at USD 0.049–0.050/W. Tight supply in China and rising silver prices, which lifted production costs, led direct procurement prices of p-type cells to edge up slightly last week, with the corresponding RMB price rising from RMB 0.34/W to RMB 0.35/W.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China remains at USD 0.049/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.048–0.050/W. While some manufacturers saw export prices reach nearly USD 0.05/W last week, the USD export price range remained unchanged as China’s domestic price-hike expectations failed to materialize.
 

Module

Following the Labor Day holiday, prices in China have continued their recent downtrend. Prices for distributed PV continue to weaken, falling by RMB 0.01/W this week to RMB 0.76/W. The overall average price also declined to RMB 0.744/W. At present, actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are mostly RMB 0.68–0.75/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73-0.82/W for distributed projects.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized. In Europe, current prices are around USD 0.11–0.12/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

Module prices continue to diverge, with ground-mounted and distributed module prices moving in opposite directions. In the Chinese distributed market, downward adjustments in quotes have been transmitted more quickly to actual deliveries, leading to a slight decline in transaction prices over the past two weeks. In contrast, the ground-mounted segment has lagged. On one hand, some low-priced orders are still under negotiation; on the other hand, current deliveries are primarily based on earlier contracts.

Observations this week indicate a clear shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers. Compared with the previous focus on transaction profit margins, companies are now seeking a balance between avoiding order losses and maintaining net price levels. In project bidding, most players are prioritizing order acquisition and stable production operations, resulting in greater flexibility in pricing strategies and a softening of earlier firm pricing stances. At the same time, pressure on the sales side has continued to rise. While senior management still maintains relatively firm price targets, a gap has emerged between price quotes and actual transaction levels, limiting order intake and further prompting internal adjustments and downward revisions in quotes.

Notably, silver prices have seen renewed volatility recently due to supply-demand dynamics, prompting some module manufacturers to consider raising quotes. While price increases driven by raw material fluctuations may not necessarily improve manufacturers’ margins, they could stimulate short-term procurement interest as buyers step up purchases on price upswings.