Upstream prices hold steady; silver volatility fuels cell price-hike expectations

*InfoLink publishes spot price based on prices at which orders are delivered and new orders signed from Thursday of the previous week to this Wednesday.(5.7-5.13)
 

Polysilicon    

The impact of meetings on anti-price-war measures and cost floors will still take time to play out, with discussion progress remaining unclear. Seller offers, however, have remained stable for several weeks, with producers reluctant to accept prices below cash costs. Prices this week are as follows: 

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 35-36/kg, remaining stable.

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 32-34/kg.

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 34-36/kg, remaining stable.

Polysilicon order signing this week has been dominated by small-volume transactions. Current price stability has encouraged buyers to place restocking orders. Negotiations for new chunk polysilicon orders begin to conclude this week, while granular polysilicon orders for May are nearly fully booked.

Looking ahead, expectations of weak demand may continue to weigh on market sentiment. With leading producers potentially restarting capacity in late May, prices may face renewed volatility. Polysilicon inventory drawdown remains relatively slow, leaving prices exposed to further downside risk.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation, with some manufacturers already conducting sample testing. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscriber-only information section.
 

Wafer 

This week, wafer prices have largely stayed at last week’s levels, with no clear changes in the market. By format, 183N prices stand at RMB 0.90/piece, 210RN at RMB 1.00/piece, and 210N at RMB 1.20/piece.

Some wafer producers have recently begun signaling potential price hikes. However, given expectations of limited transaction volumes and the lack of a clear recovery in downstream demand, whether prices can be pushed higher smoothly remains subject to market validation. USD-denominated quotes have edged up slightly due to exchange-rate fluctuations.

In terms of transactions, market trading activity remains subdued this week. Some cell manufacturers continue to focus on digesting previous inventories, leaving limited momentum for new procurement. Meanwhile, wafer producers have been raising utilization rates this month, with a gradual inventory build beginning to emerge in the market. 

Going forward, attention should remain focused on supply-demand matching after production increases, especially whether the recovery in utilization rates can be effectively absorbed by end demand. Should pull-in momentum fall short of expectations, the market may face renewed inventory accumulation risks.

The upstream polysilicon cost line has yet to show any notable change. Although cell quotes have edged up this week on the back of higher silver prices, cost pressure has also increased, and any further increase in wafer prices may dampen downstream procurement willingness. Overall, the wafer market continues to be characterized by price stability, with any localized upward adjustments likely to be exploratory in nature.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.325/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.32-0.33/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.335/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.335/W (up)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

Demand for 183N and 210RN remains weak, while 210N continues to benefit from orders from ground-mounted projects. The supply-demand structure across the three formats has largely been unchanged since last week. The main momentum behind this week’s quote increases comes from recent silver price volatility, which has pushed up the cost line. Tier-1 cell manufacturers generally began raising quotes by RMB 0.005/W on May 12, with deliveries following gradually. Price hikes across cell formats are expected to materialize in the second half of the week.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.049/W this week, with a range of USD 0.048-0.049/W. Quotes remain unchanged, as Tier-1 manufacturers in China are still mainly working on tolling orders, with limited volumes delivered through direct procurement.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China remains at USD 0.049/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.048–0.050/W. Amid recent volatility in silver prices, USD-denominated export prices are expected to rise next week, tracking corresponding increases in price quotes in China.
 

Module

Following the Labor Day holiday, prices in China have continued their recent downtrend. Although quotes for ground-mounted projects have edged up in recent weeks, order volumes have constrained any uplift in actual average prices. Although prices for ground-mounted projects have risen by RMB 0.01/W this week to RMB 0.72/W, the outlook for subsequent prices remains bearish. Distributed PV prices continue to weaken, falling by RMB 0.01/W this week to RMB 0.77/W. The overall average price also declined to RMB 0.75/W. At present, actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are mostly RMB 0.68–0.75/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73-0.82/W for distributed projects.

The average of TOPCon module prices outside China has remained at USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized. In Europe, current prices are around USD 0.11–0.12/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

Module prices have been diverse, with ground-mounted and distributed projects moving in opposite directions. In the Chinese distributed market, downward adjustments in quotes have been transmitted more quickly to actual deliveries, leading to a slight decline in transaction prices over the past two weeks. In contrast, the ground-mounted segment has lagged. On one hand, some low-priced orders are still under negotiation; on the other hand, current deliveries are primarily based on earlier contracts.

In line with the caution flagged in recent weeks, observations this week indicate a clear shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers. Compared with the previous focus on transaction profit margins, companies are now seeking a balance between avoiding order losses and maintaining net price levels. In project bidding, most players are prioritizing order acquisition and stable production operations, resulting in greater flexibility in pricing strategies and a softening of earlier firm pricing stances. At the same time, pressure on the sales side has continued to rise. While senior management still maintains relatively firm price targets, a gap has emerged between price quotes and actual transaction levels, limiting order intake and further prompting internal adjustments and downward revisions in quotes.

Notably, silver prices have seen renewed volatility recently due to supply-demand dynamics, prompting some module manufacturers to consider raising quotes. While price increases driven by raw material fluctuations may not necessarily improve manufacturers’ margins, they could stimulate short-term procurement interest as buyers step up purchases on price upswings.