Wafer and cell prices slip; post-holiday demand recovery remains uncertain

Polysilicon

With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching in China, several manufacturers have initiated early staff leave, and procurement activities over the past week have been postponed until after the holiday.

This week, a small number of new polysilicon orders have been concluded at mid-to-low price levels, mainly involving mid-tier producers. Although the cost floor announced on February 6 led to a pricing stalemate, the market remains in a seasonal demand lull, with overall transaction volumes subdued.

Overall average prices this week:

Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 45-53/kg

Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 42-49/kg

Granular polysilicon: RMB 50-51/kg

Batch signings of orders have been delayed under the influence of recent news flow.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon remains at USD 18/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon are at USD 22-23/kg. At the start of 2026, prices edged up modestly due to risks related to Section 232. Spot transactions in January have been delivered at USD 24–26/kg.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Manufacturers have reached a consensus to curb output in 1Q26, with leading manufacturers confirming shutdowns in late January and others planning to reduce utilization rates in February. As a result, monthly output is expected to remain low, with global output fluctuating around 80,000–100,000 MT. However, given the current weak demand and limited transaction volumes, manufacturers should guard against the risk of inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to decline this week, with the price midpoint shifting lower. Unlike the previous period, trading volume has begun to recover. Average prices have fallen to RMB 1.10/piece for 183N, RMB 1.20/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.40/piece for 210N, with the overall downtrend approaching a near-term cyclical low.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Transactions are concluded at RMB 1.08–1.15/piece this week. Downside bargaining intensified, with some suppliers probing RMB 1.05/piece; however, deals are still centered at RMB 1.08/piece.

• 210RN: Prices are at RMB 1.15–1.30/piece, with most deals concluded at RMB 1.15–1.20/piece and the mainstream level at RMB 1.20/piece. Although limited volumes at RMB 1.30/piece on February 5 are included in the statistics, subsequent quotes have declined sharply, underscoring the rapid downward shift in the pricing center.

• 210N: Prices land at RMB 1.40–1.50/piece, with the mainstream range at RMB 1.40–1.45/piece. Although a small volume of transactions at RMB 1.50/piece persisted from February 5, the overall pricing structure has clearly shifted downward.

Ahead of the Lunar New Year, most manufacturers have accelerated low-price shipments to reduce inventory, with pre-holiday restocking largely completed.

After the holiday, the pace of price declines is expected to moderate. While the lower-end range may see a slight further downside, the impact on average prices should be limited. Notably, cell production cuts this month have exceeded those in the wafer segment, keeping inventory pressure and pricing under pressure. A rebound in cell output is widely anticipated in March, potentially restoring procurement momentum. Meanwhile, recent industry cost benchmarks may provide price support. In the near term, prices are expected to remain weak but trend toward stabilization.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• Average prices: 183N, 210RN, and 210N have all slipped to RMB 0.44/W.

• Price ranges: 183N, 210RN, and 210N have all stayed at RMB 0.43–0.45/W.

Driven by easing silver paste costs and falling wafer prices, cell price reduction is expected to take effect this week. Although manufacturers continue to procure spot silver at a premium, the premium has narrowed. As production costs declined, cell quotes have been adjusted downward accordingly.

With silver prices stabilizing in the short term and production costs remaining manageable, several Tier-1 cell manufacturers plan to ramp up production from post-Lunar New Year into March. Most Tier-2 and Tier-3 producers remain cautious, awaiting a clearer rebound in downstream demand after the holiday.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P cells remains stable at USD 0.05/W this week, with quotes from Chinese Tier-1 manufacturers largely unchanged. The higher-priced segment—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—reflects the recent decline in silver costs, leading to a slight decrease in the weekly average price to USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

Affected by softer silver prices and in line with trends in China, the average export price for 183N cells from China has declined to USD 0.058/W this week. Prices of high-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. have also slipped to USD 0.115/W.
 

Module

Recent volatility in silver prices—marked by sharp rallies followed by pullbacks—has led to fluctuations in module production costs. In response, module manufacturers have raised quotes in line with their respective cost structures. This week, quotes for distributed PV modules in China have been raised to RMB 0.80–0.88/W, while actual transaction prices have landed at RMB 0.75–0.80/W.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have remained unchanged this week. The average TOPCon module price in China is at RMB 0.739/W, with the average transaction price for distributed projects at RMB 0.76/W.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules lands at USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.10-0.13/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.