Cost pass-through stalls in midstream as end-market demand remains weak

Polysilicon

Following the Lunar New Year holiday, no new polysilicon orders have been concluded this week. There have been no concrete updates on capacity rationalization policies. However, leading manufacturers have first signaled capacity adjustment measures, suggesting that capacity rationalization may transition toward market-oriented adjustment.

Deliveries this week are primarily tied to previously signed contracts.

Overall average prices this week:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 50-53/kg 

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 48-50/kg 

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 50-51/kg

Polysilicon producers have lowered their new quotes to RMB 53–55/kg, while some suppliers have yet to release updated quotes. Leading manufacturers continue to defend price levels above RMB 50/kg, whereas some small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) provide relatively lower quotes. However, amid prevailing wait-and-see sentiment, no new transactions have been concluded this week.

On the procurement side, sluggish demand, coupled with margin compression, has constrained purchasing activities, prompting most wafer producers to delay procurement. Those with sufficient inventories are deferring purchases until mid-to-late March, in anticipation of prices declining to RMB 43–45/kg. Whether price hikes can be transmitted through the supply chain will hinge on downstream players’ ability to absorb higher costs.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg, with Malaysia-made polysilicon holding steady. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

In the first week following the Lunar New Year holiday, wafer prices remain broadly unchanged from pre-holiday levels, with average prices largely stable. Current mainstream wafer averages stand at RMB 1.10/piece for 183N, RMB 1.20/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.40/piece for 210N.

However, post-holiday transaction activity remains subdued, as most cell makers have yet to resume large-scale procurement, and transaction volumes have yet to show a meaningful increase.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Transaction prices come in at RMB 1.05–1.10/piece this week. While the lower end slips slightly, most deals are concentrated at RMB 1.08–1.10/piece.

• 210RN: Prices are at RMB 1.15–1.20/piece, with the lower end holding at RMB 1.15/piece.

• 210N: Transactions are at RMB 1.35–1.40/piece. Although the lower end eases marginally from pre-holiday levels, mainstream deals continue to cluster around RMB 1.38–1.40/piece.

From a supply–demand perspective, most cell manufacturers are expected to ramp up production in March. With China’s early-April export tax rebate policy deadline approaching, some companies may complete a final round of pre-policy restocking, potentially boosting wafer procurement demand and providing temporary price support. In addition, rumors of upstream acquisition activities have bolstered industry expectations.

Fundamentally, however, clear cost-side support has yet to emerge. Downstream buyers remain cautious, with many opting to reassess market conditions in mid-to-late March before making procurement decisions. In the short term, wafer inventory pressure persists. If demand recovers as expected in March, it may create room for a price rebound and facilitate gradual inventory digestion ahead of price rebounds.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices stay still this week. Average prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N are all at RMB 0.44/W, with price ranges for these formats at RMB 0.43–0.45/W.

Following the Lunar New Year holiday, market transactions have yet to show a meaningful pickup. As of February 25, some cell manufacturers have lowered direct-sales quotes across formats to RMB 0.42–0.43/W. However, given that silver prices remain the primary constraint on both cell costs and selling prices, Tier-1 cell makers have largely maintained stable transaction prices.

Overall, despite market discussion surrounding the cancellation of export tax rebates, near-term order visibility remains unclear. Supply–demand imbalance persists in the cell segment, and with silver prices rebounding from recent lows, Chinese cell manufacturers adopt a more cautious stance toward potential production ramp-ups in March compared with pre-holiday expectations.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD: 

The average price for 182P cells remains stable at USD 0.05/W this week, with quotes from Chinese Tier-1 manufacturers largely unchanged. Higher-priced products—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—also remain flat at USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China holds steady at USD 0.058/W this week. High-priced n-type cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. hold at USD 0.115/W.

It is worth noting that, following the U.S. preliminary countervailing duty determinations on Indonesia and Laos this week, cell shipments from these two countries are now primarily being redirected to the Indian market.
 

Module

Following the holiday, module prices have remained broadly stable. This week, quotes for distributed PV modules in China have been at RMB 0.80–0.88/W, while actual transaction prices have landed at RMB 0.75–0.80/W.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have remained unchanged this week. The average TOPCon module price in China is at RMB 0.739/W, with the average transaction price for distributed projects at RMB 0.76/W.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules lands at USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.10-0.13/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.