Midstream price hike expectations emerge, while module prices gradually soften

Polysilicon

Affected by recent market news, polysilicon order signing has remained cautious this week. New contract discussions have been largely postponed. While prices for granular polysilicon edged higher in negotiations, only a small number of transactions have been concluded. Market activity continues to center on the execution of previously signed orders. Buyers remain cautious due to existing inventories and elevated market risks, with most continuing to procure in small batches to digest earlier inventory and reduce overall material costs, rather than signaling any meaningful recovery in end-market demand. Structural supply–demand imbalance persists.

Discussions surrounding anti-price war measures and cost floors have resurfaced, though progress remains unclear. Further developments should be monitored in the coming period. Market sentiment continues to weigh on buyer expectations for price stabilization. Average prices are expected to edge up to RMB 33–35/kg, while significant upside remains unlikely. Weak demand expectations for April and May continue to constrain price support.

Delivery prices this week: 

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 35-36/kg, with quotes climbing to RMB 37/kg, but no transactions have been concluded so far.

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 32-34/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 34-36/kg, with some negotiations ongoing at RMB 37/kg.

Overall, the pace of price declines has moderated, but the market remains in a stalemate, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation, with some manufacturers already conducting sample testing. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have seen signs of stabilization this week. Since April 16, upstream polysilicon futures prices have moved upward, and coupled with market rumors of upcoming industry meetings—though not yet confirmed—this has provided some psychological support to the market. As a result, wafer manufacturers have gradually raised their quotes.

Current mainstream quotes have increased to:

• 183N: RMB 0.92/piece

• 210RN: RMB 1.02/piece

• 210N: RMB 1.22/piece

Overall, actual transaction prices have not fully followed the upward adjustment in quotes, with around RMB 0.02/piece still available for negotiation at the low end. Some cell manufacturers continue to bargain against the higher quotes, maintaining a cautious procurement attitude. In addition, some buyers had already built up inventories ahead of this round of price hikes, resulting in limited new procurement demand this week and a relatively subdued trading atmosphere.

By wafer format:

• 183N

Low-end transactions remain at RMB 0.90/piece.

Despite higher quotes, actual deals are scarce, reflecting weak downstream acceptance of price increases

• 210RN

Transaction range: generally at RMB 1.00–1.02/piece

Low end remains at RMB 1.00/piece

Some manufacturers have yet to adjust prices while continuing shipments, placing pressure on the market.

• 210N

Price range: RMB 1.20–1.22/piece

Limited upward adjustment overall

With gradual release of large-format wafer demand, price support is relatively stronger compared to smaller formats.

In the short term, momentum for a price rebound remains limited. Market acceptance of higher prices has been weak this week, indicating that current price support is mainly driven by upstream cost expectations and market sentiment, rather than a meaningful recovery in demand. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to polysilicon price trends and developments from upcoming industry meetings.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.335/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.335/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.34/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.335/W

After a continuous decline in price ranges from last week into this week, the downward trend in cell prices has begun to moderate. As upstream wafer prices have moved upward, price increase expectations are also emerging among cell manufacturers, with 210N cell quotes following suit first.

If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from late April to early May and cost support remains largely unchanged, cell prices are expected to stabilize with a potential upward bias.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.049/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.047–0.049/W. Notably, tight supply from Chinese Tier-1 manufacturers has led to higher quotes this week, although these increases have not yet been concluded in transactions.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.049/W this week, with a price range of USD 0.049–0.050/W. Prices have held steady this week, with no significant changes in order activities outside China. Expectations for price hikes in export markets remain broadly aligned with price trends in China.
 

Module

Module prices in China are still struggling to hold steady this week.

In the ground-mounted project segment, manufacturers have attempted modest price increases over the past few weeks; however, order volumes have constrained the realization of higher average transaction prices, with only slight upward movement observed this week.

In the distributed project segment, although manufacturers have maintained a firm pricing strategy, many players have begun to lower their quotes, making distributed prices the first to slip.

Current TOPCon module transaction prices are as follows:

• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.68–0.75/W

• Distributed projects: RMB 0.76–0.80/W

TOPCon module prices outside China have remained largely unchanged this week. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. In Europe, current quotes for distribution and ground-mounted projects are at USD 0.12–0.125/W (FOB). Overall, the average price outside China is around USD 0.11–0.12/W. For detailed regional spot prices, please refer to the premium version of the weekly price report.

Notably, a relatively rare module price divergence has emerged this week, with ground-mounted and distributed projects moving in opposite directions.

In Chinese distributed market, downward adjustments in quotes have been transmitted more quickly to actual deliveries, leading to a slight decline in transaction prices over the past two weeks.

In contrast, the ground-mounted segment has lagged behind. On one hand, some low-priced orders are still under negotiation; on the other hand, current deliveries are primarily based on earlier contracts.

This week’s observations indicate a clear shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers. Compared with the previous focus on transaction profit margins, companies are now seeking a balance between avoiding order losses and maintaining net price levels.

In project bidding, most players are prioritizing order acquisition and stable production operations, resulting in greater flexibility in pricing strategies and a softening of earlier firm pricing stances.

At the same time, sales-side pressure has continued to rise. While senior management still maintains relatively firm price targets, a gap has emerged between price quotes and actual transaction levels, limiting order intake and further prompting internal adjustments and downward revisions in quotes.

Overall, the market remains in a phase where weak demand, falling costs, and ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies are interacting. From the demand side, end-market activity continues to operate at a low level, with limited new orders and actual transactions. The market lacks clear incremental momentum, and even where selective price increases have occurred in the past, they have been difficult to sustain.

Against this backdrop, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility to secure future orders. At the same time, observations this week suggest a mismatch in execution pace among some companies, with delays in internal adjustments. As a result, price adjustments have not been consistently reflected in quotes and deliveries, leading to inefficient price signal transmission and, in some cases, amplifying price volatility and the extent of price softening.

While prices remain relatively stable in the short term, the continued accumulation of weak demand and softening cost support is increasing downside pressure. InfoLink maintains its early-month outlook that the likelihood of price declines is rising in the second half of April, with a potential market turning point approaching.