Month-end inventory drawdown prompts wafer and cell makers to shore up prices

Polysilicon

Polysilicon order signing has remained cautious this week amid recent market news and midstream price pressure, with deliveries focusing on previously signed orders. Structural supply–demand imbalances remain unresolved.

Polysilicon chunks remain focused on previously contracted orders, with no new orders signed this week. May orders for granular polysilicon have been under negotiation and continued to be finalized this week. Its lower carbon footprint, cost advantages, lack of excessive carryover inventory have stimulated buyer procurement demand, with procurement preferences showing early signs of divergence.

Discussions surrounding anti-price war measures and cost floors remain uncertain and require time to materialize. Sellers are already under acute cost pressure, while sentiment has temporarily arrested the price decline, keeping average prices at RMB 34–35/kg. However, with demand expected to remain weak through April–May, support is insufficient and downside risk persists.

Delivery prices are at RMB 35-36/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon, RMB 32-34/kg for mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots), and RMB 34-36/kg for granular polysilicon. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation, with some manufacturers already conducting sample testing. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have softened this week, with the earlier stabilization failing to hold and transaction levels drifting lower. Despite relatively stable polysilicon prices and attempted wafer quote increases last week, execution remains limited. The prior pricing standoff has eased, with transaction prices beginning to decline.

Prices come in at RMB 0.90-0.92/piece for 183N, RMB 1.00-1.02/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.20-1.22/piece for 210N. Compared to last week, average prices have fallen by RMB 0.02/piece. Although some earlier higher quotes have been executed, transactions remain concentrated at the low end, indicating weak acceptance of elevated prices.

As month-end approaches and pre-holiday restocking begins, some wafer producers have cleared inventory at discounted prices, driving transaction levels below certain manufacturers’ quoted levels. These concessions have modestly lifted cell procurement, improving market activity and accelerating inventory drawdown.

On the supply side, wafer production schedule is expected to rise in May after the Labor Day holiday, with large-format supply expanding alongside the ramp-up of ground-mounted projects in Q2, supporting medium- to long-term demand absorption and price stability.

In the near term, however, anticipated price support from last week’s industry meeting has yet to materialize into tangible positives, leaving upward momentum limited. Prices are therefore expected to remain range-bound next week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.325/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.33/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.335/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.33/W

This week, 183N and 210RN prices have declined, while 210N prices have remained stable, reflecting diverging supply–demand dynamics across formats. May order demand has softened for 183N and 210RN, whereas 210N demand has strengthened on the back of ground-mounted projects in China. As of April 29, following the end-April inventory clearance, manufacturers have sought to hold prices firm, with quotes across formats generally above RMB 0.33/W.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.049/W this week, with a range of USD 0.048-0.049/W. April direct procurement orders from Chinese leading manufacturers have largely been delivered, and May quotes remain unchanged.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China remains at USD 0.049/W this week. The price range has softened in line with the Chinese market to USD 0.048–0.050/W, with May demand outside China remaining weak.
 

Module

This week marks the final price release ahead of China’s Labor Day holiday. Prices in China remain under downward pressure. Although quotes for ground-mounted projects have edged up in recent weeks, order volumes have constrained any uplift in average prices. In the distributed segment, despite attempts to maintain strategic price support, most manufacturers have lowered guidance prices this week, with prices continuing to soften. Current TOPCon module transaction prices are RMB 0.68–0.75/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.80/W for distributed projects.

TOPCon module prices outside China have declined this week, with the average easing to USD 0.115/W amid adjustments in the European spot market and Asia-Pacific projects. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized. In Europe, current quotes for distribution and ground-mounted projects have adjusted downward from previous levels. Overall, the average price outside China is around USD 0.11–0.12/W. For detailed regional spot prices, please refer to the premium version of the weekly price report.

Module price divergence continues this week, with ground-mounted and distributed projects moving in opposite directions. In the Chinese distributed market, downward adjustments in quotes have been transmitted more quickly to actual deliveries, leading to a slight decline in transaction prices over the past two weeks. In contrast, the ground-mounted segment has lagged. On one hand, some low-priced orders are still under negotiation; on the other hand, current deliveries are primarily based on earlier contracts.

In line with the caution flagged in recent weeks, observations this week indicate a clear shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers. Compared with the previous focus on transaction profit margins, companies are now seeking a balance between avoiding order losses and maintaining net price levels. In project bidding, most players are prioritizing order acquisition and stable production operations, resulting in greater flexibility in pricing strategies and a softening of earlier firm pricing stances. At the same time, sales-side pressure has continued to rise. While senior management still maintains relatively firm price targets, a gap has emerged between price quotes and actual transaction levels, limiting order intake and further prompting internal adjustments and downward revisions in quotes.

Overall, the market remains in a phase where weak demand, falling costs, and ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies are interacting. From the demand side, end-market activity continues to operate at a low level, with limited new orders and actual transactions. The market lacks clear incremental momentum; however, ground-mounted project volumes are gradually increasing compared with Q1. Against this backdrop, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility to secure future orders.

Overall, market trends are broadly in line with InfoLink’s early-month outlook. With weak demand and easing cost support, a price inflection point has emerged in late April. The near-term price floor will require post-holiday market developments for confirmation.