Trading remains soft during China’s Labor Day holiday; upstream and downstream prices hold steady for now

Polysilicon

Due to China’s Labor Day holiday, polysilicon order signings are put on hold this week, with the market largely unchanged from pre-holiday levels. Suppliers have paused new negotiations and mainly focused on fulfilling previously signed orders. Structural supply–demand imbalances remain unresolved.

Polysilicon chunks remain focused on previously contracted orders, with no new orders signed. Granular polysilicon producers are gradually negotiating and finalizing new orders for May, with some nearly fully booked and preparing to raise prices. Its lower carbon footprint, cost advantages, and lack of excessive carryover inventory have stimulated buyer procurement demand, with procurement preferences showing early signs of divergence.

Discussions surrounding anti-price war measures and cost floors remain uncertain and require time to materialize. Sellers are already under acute cost pressure, while sentiment has temporarily arrested the price decline, keeping average prices at RMB 34–35/kg. However, with demand expected to remain weak through April–May, support is insufficient and downside risk persists.

Delivery prices are at RMB 35-36/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon, RMB 32-34/kg for mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots), and RMB 34-36/kg for granular polysilicon. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation, with some manufacturers already conducting sample testing. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Following the Labor Day holiday, wafer prices hold steady from last week’s averages, with 183N at RMB 0.90/piece, 210RN at RMB 1.00/piece, and 210N at RMB 1.20/piece. With trading volumes yet to pick up meaningfully, most manufacturers remain in a wait-and-see mode, though some localized price softening cannot be ruled out next week.

Wafer output in May has increased noticeably from April. Although demand outside China weakened earlier following the cancellation of export tax rebates, demand from China’s domestic ground-mounted projects has gradually picked up, providing some support for large-format products. For now, wafer prices are expected to remain stable, with any further upside depending on polysilicon cost movements. As the polysilicon market has yet to see a meaningful rise in transactions or clear new price signals, wafer prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the near term.

Some manufacturers began inventory drawdown at the end of April, bringing forward procurement demand. Trading was muted during the holiday, and most manufacturers are expected to focus on digesting existing inventories. However, with several specialized manufacturers planning to raise output in May, whether demand can keep pace remains uncertain. Demand support will be key to whether inventories build again.

Supplier quotes have largely converged, narrowing market divergence. As most orders are still being delivered at previously signed prices, price movements are limited this week, with prices expected to remain rangebound next week.
 

Cell prices in China

Average prices of all n-type cells have remained at pre-Labor Day holiday levels. Prices are as follows:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.325/W

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.33/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.33/W

Price range: RMB 0.325-0.33/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.33/W

Price range: RMB 0.33-0.335/W

Prices show little change this week, broadly following last week’s trend. Weaker May demand for 183N and 210RN cells continues to weigh on prices, with the 183N price range largely unchanged and low-end 210RN deliveries reaching RMB 0.325/W. By contrast, 210N transaction prices have risen, supported by China’s domestic ground-mounted project demand. Overall, cell manufacturers are still attempting to hold prices firm, but near-term upside remains limited.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.049/W this week, with a range of USD 0.048-0.049/W. Quotes for new orders in May have not changed, leaving overall price levels unchanged.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China remains at USD 0.049/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.048–0.050/W. May orders from non-China markets remain weak, narrowing the offshore premium. While most deliveries this week are fulfilled at pre-holiday prices, prices outside China may soften further.
 

Module

This week marks the first workweek after China’s Labor Day holiday, with fewer working days and little market movement. Prices in China remain under downward pressure. Although quotes for ground-mounted projects have edged up in recent weeks, order volumes have constrained any uplift in average prices. In the distributed segment, despite attempts to maintain strategic price support, most manufacturers have lowered guidance prices this week, with prices continuing to soften. Current TOPCon module transaction prices are RMB 0.68–0.75/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.80/W for distributed projects.

The average of TOPCon module prices outside China has remained at USD 0.115/W amid adjustments in the European spot market and Asia-Pacific projects. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized. In Europe, current quotes for distribution and ground-mounted projects have adjusted downward from previous levels. Overall, the average price outside China is around USD 0.11–0.12/W. For detailed regional spot prices, please refer to the premium version of the weekly price report.

Module price has been diverse, with ground-mounted and distributed projects moving in opposite directions. In the Chinese distributed market, downward adjustments in quotes have been transmitted more quickly to actual deliveries, leading to a slight decline in transaction prices over the past two weeks. In contrast, the ground-mounted segment has lagged. On one hand, some low-priced orders are still under negotiation; on the other hand, current deliveries are primarily based on earlier contracts.

In line with the caution flagged in recent weeks, observations this week indicate a clear shift in pricing strategies among manufacturers. Compared with the previous focus on transaction profit margins, companies are now seeking a balance between avoiding order losses and maintaining net price levels. In project bidding, most players are prioritizing order acquisition and stable production operations, resulting in greater flexibility in pricing strategies and a softening of earlier firm pricing stances. At the same time, sales-side pressure has continued to rise. While senior management still maintains relatively firm price targets, a gap has emerged between price quotes and actual transaction levels, limiting order intake and further prompting internal adjustments and downward revisions in quotes.

Overall, the market remains in a phase where weak demand, falling costs, and ongoing adjustments in pricing strategies are interacting. From the demand side, end-market activity continues to operate at a low level, with limited new orders and actual transactions. The market lacks clear incremental momentum; however, ground-mounted project volumes are gradually increasing compared with Q1. Against this backdrop, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility to secure future orders.

Overall, market trends are broadly in line with InfoLink’s early-month outlook. With weak demand and easing cost support, a price inflection point emerged in late April. The near-term price floor will require post-holiday market developments for confirmation.