Wafer quotes expected to soften; falling silver prices drive cell prices lower

Polysilicon

During the SNEC week, polysilicon market sentiment remained weak. Prices briefly stabilized after leading producers signed large-volume orders in May, but inventory pressure was not resolved; it was only partially transferred to downstream buyers and futures traders. Persistent inventory buildup remains the key risk weighing on future price trends.

Around SNEC, downstream procurement generally slowed, with buyers and sellers waiting until after the exhibition to renegotiate new-order prices. However, post-event transaction volumes have yet to pick up, with some producers offering lower negotiated prices while buyers and sellers remain locked in a price tug-of-war. This week, mainstream prices hold steady at RMB 34-35/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon, RMB 32-33/kg for mixed-lot polysilicon, and RMB 33-35/kg for granular polysilicon.

With demand recovery remaining limited and low electricity tariffs during the wet season supporting higher-than-expected utilization rates among some producers, the market still expects prices to decline further in July and August. Recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall to RMB 30-32/kg, with the overall average potentially dropping below RMB 30/kg. 

Overall, SNEC 2026 did not signal a price reversal. Instead, the polysilicon segment appears to be entering a prolonged phase of low utilization, slow inventory drawdown, and policy uncertainty. With clear policy constraints yet to materialize, the market is waiting to see how tighter energy-consumption standards, capacity regulation, and other measures will be implemented. Before official policy implementation, polysilicon prices will remain mainly driven by demand, inventory, and cash-flow pressure.

In non-China markets, the U.S. Section 232 policy is rumored to be released by late June. New orders for non-U.S. supplies have yet to be signed in large volumes, with most still under negotiation. By contrast, U.S.-made polysilicon remains supported by lower policy risk, with prices even showing faint signs of a possible uptick. Looking forward, policy developments and whether Oman-origin polysilicon will be covered under the relevant framework warrant close attention.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have remained broadly unchanged from last week. However, some quotes have started to loosen in the past two days. As new transaction prices gradually materialize, these changes are expected to be more clearly reflected in next week’s prices.

As SNEC was held last week, most manufacturers and downstream buyers stayed on the sidelines, keeping mainstream prices stable at RMB 0.90/piece for 183N, RMB 1.00/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.20/piece for 210N. After the exhibition, procurement activity has gradually resumed, with transaction volumes showing signs of recovery, especially among tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers. Low-price transactions have gradually increased, and lower quotes have started to emerge, suggesting a loosening price environment that may spread further next week.

Overall, wafer inventories saw a slight buildup at the beginning of the month, but improving transaction activity is expected to gradually ease inventory pressure. In non-China markets, demand for China-made wafers remains steady, and moderate price adjustments may further stimulate demand, supporting inventory digestion.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• •    183N

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.305-0.315/W (down)

• •    210RN

Average price: RMB 0.315/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W (down)

• •    210N

Average price: RMB 0.32/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.315-0.325/W (down)

Silver futures prices have plunged this week to RMB 15,000-16,000/kg. Although manufacturers’ physical silver costs remain relatively high, the sharp decline has weakened market sentiment. Combined with growing bearish expectations of oversupply in June, cell prices have fallen rapidly and are increasingly benchmarking against manufacturers’ production cost levels. If silver prices fail to recover, overall cell prices may see further downward adjustments.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.050/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.049-0.052/W. As major Chinese manufacturers have shifted to tolling production, overall supply remains constrained. Shipments continue to be exported to non-China markets, primarily Africa.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has edged down to USD 0.046/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.046-0.048/W. In June, demand for 183N cells weakened notably in non-China markets. In line with China’s falling costs and downward pressure from oversupply, export prices in USD have largely lost their premium, with some quotes outside China even falling below price levels in China.
 

Module

Overall module prices remain largely stable this week, though distributed projects remain under pressure, with delivery prices down RMB 0.005/W and the overall average falling to RMB 0.741/W. Current TOPCon module delivery prices range from RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73-0.82/W for distributed projects.

End-market demand remains weak, with limited new orders and a lack of clear incremental growth drivers. Still, ground-mounted project volume has shown a gradual recovery since Q2 compared with Q1. Meanwhile, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility in internal pricing guidance to secure more project orders going forward. Recent silver price volatility, driven by supply-demand dynamics, has renewed market focus on cost movements. Some module manufacturers have adjusted quotes accordingly to reflect changes in raw material costs.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized. In Europe, current prices are around USD 0.11–0.12/W. U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from RMB 0.30-0.33/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.