Polysilicon destocking remains limited; low-priced wafer offers diverge further

Polysilicon

By mid-to-late June, buyers and sellers have remained in a tug-of-war, with only a small volume of orders executed this week. Under the influence of market fluctuations, mainstream prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 33–34/kg (down)

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 32-33/kg (flat)

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 32-34/kg (down)

End-market demand has yet to show a notable recovery, leaving the supply chain caught between sales volume and gross margins. In the polysilicon segment, buyers remain cautious and still hold enough polysilicon inventory to sustain production. As a result, a degree of wait-and-see stance sentiment persists in June. Some buyers have pushed their target for the overall average prices down to RMB 28–30/kg, but transactions at this level remain difficult to conclude.

For some producers, clearing inventory remains the top priority. With production plans for the upcoming wet season also having an impact, they continue actively seeking orders. With inventories still high and actual destocking still limited, some manufacturers have had to sacrifice margins to secure order volume, while transactions remain largely concentrated among leading producers.

From June to July, the key issue for the polysilicon segment is whether producers, faced again with the incentive of lower electricity tariffs during the wet season, can maintain control over output growth, rather than bringing large volumes to market all at once. Global polysilicon output in June and July is expected to reach 100,000–110,000 MT. Considering the gap between buyers and sellers, the polysilicon segment still faces the risk of inventory accumulation. The market still expects prices to fall further in July and August, with recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices possibly falling back to RMB 30–32/kg, corresponding to a possible drop in the overall average price to below RMB 30/kg.

In non-China markets, the U.S. Section 232 policy is rumored to be released by late June. New orders for non-U.S. supplies have yet to be signed in large volumes, with most still under negotiation. By contrast, U.S.-made polysilicon remains supported by lower policy risk, with prices even showing faint signs of a possible uptick. Looking forward, policy developments and whether Oman-origin polysilicon will be covered under the relevant framework warrant close attention.
 

Wafer 

Wafer prices have trended lower this week, in line with last week’s expectations.

For 183N wafers, deliveries at RMB 0.90/piece have continued since last Thursday. However, low-priced deals at RMB 0.87–0.88/piece have also emerged and been concluded one after another, indicating that the overall transaction level has started to move lower. Mainstream transaction prices for 210RN and 210N wafers this week have fallen to RMB 0.98/piece and RMB 1.18/piece, respectively, with declines more pronounced than for 183N.

On the low-price front, quotes from Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers have diverged more notably. The lowest quote for 210RN has fallen to RMB 0.97/piece, while that for 210N has dropped to RMB 1.17/piece. The market has also seen reports of even lower prices recently. However, as some quotes involve quality differences, dual-distributor models, or trader-held inventory, actual transactions remain relatively limited for now. These low-price signals are likely to gradually feed through to market prices next week.

Although leading manufacturers have continued to send price-support signals recently, actual transaction prices have already loosened, especially as prices from Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers have been revised down noticeably since late last week. With polysilicon prices still trending downward and cost support continuing to weaken, wafer prices may fall further next week. 

As overall inventory pressure remains high, the market will still need to watch whether some manufacturers accelerate destocking through low-priced shipments from mid- to late June.

Wafer demand in non-China markets has recently seen a temporary pullback, as most customers had completed stockpiling ahead of the April export tax rebate policy adjustment. In price negotiations, buyers outside China have generally sought purchase prices RMB 0.01–0.02/piece lower than levels in China, leading to relatively weak transaction activity recently. With earlier inventories being gradually drawn down, the market expects a new round of restocking demand may emerge toward month-end, though actual pull-in momentum remains to be further observed. 
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.295/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.29-0.30/W (down)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.30–0.305/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.31/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.305-0.31/W (down)

After silver prices rebounded to RMB 16,000–17,000/kg this week, bearish sentiment around cell prices has temporarily eased. However, some manufacturers have significantly raised their production schedules MoM by mid-June, while overall cell demand has weakened amid sluggish demand in China’s domestic market and policy factors in India. As a result, inventory levels have been gradually rising, mainly concentrated in the 183N format. Assuming silver prices do not rise sharply going forward, cell prices may weaken again from late June to early July as market pessimism persists.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.050/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.049-0.050/W. The market remains largely based on OEM supply, with supply volumes scarce, and recent prices have stabilized.

P-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has edged down to USD 0.044/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.044-0.046/W. Exports of 183N are constrained by Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) compliance issues in India, where substantial inventory buildup and some returns have begun to emerge. Overall demand has weakened noticeably, and non-China quotes are now largely on par with, or even below, levels in China.
 

Module

Overall module prices remain largely stable this week. Current TOPCon module delivery prices range from RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73-0.82/W for distributed projects.

End-market demand remains weak in China, with limited new orders and a lack of clear incremental growth drivers. Still, ground-mounted project volume has shown a gradual recovery since Q2 compared with Q1. Meanwhile, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility in internal pricing guidance to secure more project orders going forward. Recent silver price volatility, driven by supply-demand dynamics, has renewed market focus on cost movements. Some module manufacturers have adjusted quotes accordingly to reflect changes in raw material costs.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.116/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

In Europe, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since the start of June, now exceeding USD 4,000 after a weekly increase of nearly 40%. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up freight rates and lifted spot market prices in Europe.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from RMB 0.30-0.33/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.