Cell prices extend declines as inventory overhang persists

Polysilicon

Only a few polysilicon orders have been executed this week. Under the influence of market fluctuations, mainstream prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 31-33/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 30-32/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 32-33/kg

Transaction activity remains broadly flat WoW, with buyers staying cautious and focusing on small-volume purchases. As midstream remains under pressure and expectations for further price declines persist, the overall transaction price range has narrowed. Looking ahead, the approaching wet season, the resumption of operations by leading producers, and increased output from some manufacturers have led to an upward revision in monthly polysilicon production, making current price levels difficult to sustain. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall to RMB 30–32/kg, with the overall average potentially dropping below RMB 30/kg and possibly overshooting further.

Market participants should monitor the Norm of Energy Consumption per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium, following its draft released last September. The standard will take effect on January 1, 2027, and its earlier-than-expected release signals positive momentum for capacity phase-out. If reinforced through subsequent policy guidance, it could further accelerate market stabilization. The rectification period has been shortened from one year to six months, providing clearer timelines for capacity exits and enabling companies to better plan their next steps.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices show no significant changes this week, standing at RMB 0.88/piece for 183N, RMB 0.98/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.18/piece for 210N.

In contrast to last week, low-end prices continue to diverge. Mainstream prices come in at RMB 0.87/piece for 183N, and RMB 0.97/piece for 210RN, with some negotiations falling below RMB 0.96/piece. Prices for 210N wafers stay at RMB 1.17/piece, with low-end offers reportedly near RMB 1.16/piece. Amid ongoing price divergence, tier-1 manufacturers have kept quotes near this week’s average. Some smaller manufacturers have held quotes steady, but actual transaction prices continue to decline weekly.

On the production side, overall wafer output in July is expected to rise slightly from June. While some manufacturers plan to cut production, higher utilization rates at most integrated producers should lift output by about 2–3 GW. The market remains characterized by a modest increase in supply and limited demand absorption, with low-end prices continuing to edge lower and short-term pricing under pressure. Looking ahead, attention should focus on downstream procurement recovery and the scale of production cuts.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.275/W (down)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.275/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.28/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.275-0.280/W (down)

Inventory pressure at cell manufacturers has shown no improvement this week, driving prices lower again and pushing low-end levels toward manufacturers’ cash-cost thresholds. However, preliminary July cell production schedules have yet to be revised downward. Integrated manufacturers are likely to increase cell production in line with upward revisions to module production schedules, while specialized cell producers continue to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Competition remains intense, with the industry remaining caught in a prisoner’s dilemma. Some manufacturers are expected to reassess operating conditions and market outlook, which should lead to moderate adjustments in actual cell output in July and even August. This may help stabilize prices, though they are likely to continue fluctuating within a low range.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has fallen to USD 0.049/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.047-0.050/W. Chinese manufacturers remain primarily engaged in OEM production, and recent prices have softened. However, persistent tight supply has constrained the overall price decline. 

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has edged down to USD 0.041/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.041-0.043/W. As volumes previously exported outside China flow back into China’s domestic market, 183N continues to account for a high share of market inventories. Numerous low-priced orders continue to pressure market conditions, and with short-term oversupply persisting, prices are expected to decline again this month.
 

Module

Overall module prices have shifted this week. For ground-mounted projects, TOPCon prices in China have fallen by RMB 0.01/W to RMB 0.71/W, bringing the overall average down to RMB 0.737/W. Current TOPCon module delivery prices are mostly at RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73–0.76/W for distributed projects.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. Volatile silver prices since the start of the year have significantly impacted costs. The recent drop in China module prices reflects weak end-market demand, limited new orders, and a lack of incremental demand support. The sharp decline in silver prices have also triggered silver futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange to fall below RMB 14,000/kg, significantly reducing module costs. End buyers are now applying the same cost-based pricing logic previously used by manufacturers to justify price increases, demanding that module makers correspondingly lower their quoted prices—further intensifying bargaining pressure in the market.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.116/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June, now approaching USD 5,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up freight rates and lifted spot market prices in Europe.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.