Cell market remains bearish amid silver-price and inventory pressure

Polysilicon

This week, only a few polysilicon orders are delivered, with prices largely holding at previously agreed levels. Under the influence of market fluctuations, mainstream prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 33–34/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 32-33/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 32-34/kg

End-market demand has yet to show a notable recovery, leaving the supply chain caught between sales volume and gross margins. Recent cell inventory buildup has increased sales pressure on wafers, with the impact further extending to the polysilicon segment. Some buyers have deferred taking delivery, adding pressure on polysilicon producers. Although polysilicon prices are already near the bottom range, buyers remain guided primarily by downstream sales performance. As a result, the market may re-enter an inventory buildup cycle in July and August.

For polysilicon producers, production plans for the upcoming wet season have yet to see significant adjustments, with only some manufacturers scheduling maintenance. With inventories still elevated and actual destocking limited, some producers have been forced to sacrifice margins to secure order volumes. However, transactions remain concentrated among leading manufacturers, while most producers reported limited order activity recently.

From June to July, the key issue for the polysilicon segment is whether producers, faced again with the incentive of lower electricity tariffs during the wet season, can maintain control over output growth, rather than bringing large volumes to market all at once. Global polysilicon output in June and July is expected to reach 100,000–110,000 MT. Considering the gap between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations for prices and demand, the polysilicon segment still faces the risk of inventory accumulation. The market still expects prices to fall further in July and August, with recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices possibly falling back to RMB 30–32/kg, corresponding to a possible drop in the overall average price to below RMB 30/kg. Prices could fall beyond fundamentals.

In non-China markets, the U.S. Section 232 policy is rumored to be released by late June. New orders for non-U.S. supplies have yet to be signed in large volumes until policy clarity improves, with most still under negotiation. By contrast, U.S.-made polysilicon remains supported by lower policy risk, with prices even showing faint signs of a possible uptick. Looking forward, policy developments and whether Oman-origin polysilicon will be covered under the relevant framework warrant close attention.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have held at last week’s level, though low-price signals continue to emerge, and downstream buyers have turned more cautious. As some cells originally supplied to non-China markets flow back into China, the market generally expects wafer demand to weaken further over the next one to two weeks.

Average wafer prices remain at RMB 0.90/piece for 183N, RMB 0.98/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.18/piece for 210N.

183N: Leading manufacturers continue to quote mainly at RMB 0.90/piece, but actual transactions remain limited. Recent inventory buildup of 183N cells has further weakened demand for corresponding wafers.

210RN: Low-price indications have continued to emerge recently. However, as some quotes reflect quality differences or non-mainstream transaction terms, mainstream transaction prices remain concentrated at RMB 0.97–0.98/piece.

210N: As overall procurement demand remains limited, most transactions are holding at RMB 1.17–1.18/piece. Compared with 210RN, low-price divergence has been less pronounced.

Overall, the wafer market remains in a bottoming phase. Renewed cell inventory buildup and weak demand continue to weigh on wafer procurement. Polysilicon prices also remain uncertain; if cost support continues to weaken, wafer prices may face further downside risk. Outside China, Indian buyers are still drawing down inventories after earlier pre-stocking, with low-price transactions frequently reported. The pace of near-term demand recovery remains to be seen.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.29/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W (down)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.29/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.285-0.295/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.295-0.30/W (down)

As noted last week, apart from silver price movements, some manufacturers’ MoM production increases in June, coupled with inventory accumulation, have further weakened supply-demand dynamics in the cell segment. As of the end of June, inventory at Chinese Tier-1 cell manufacturers is conservatively estimated at more than one week. Meanwhile, some products originally shipped to India have returned to China due to local policy compliance issues, further weighing on market conditions. Bearish sentiment remains, and if current price levels are to be sustained, cell manufacturers will likely need to cut production in July.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P holds at USD 0.050/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.049-0.050/W. Chinese manufacturers remain largely reliant on OEM supply, and recent prices have stabilized. Silver prices have yet to feed through cell quotes.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has edged down to USD 0.043/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.042-0.044/W. As mentioned last week, India’s Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) compliance issues have led to some 183N returns to China this week, driving down trading prices. Quotes in India have reached the same levels or even lower than those in China. Chinese manufacturers may lower export price quotes further to draw down inventory.
 

Module

Overall module prices remain largely stable this week. Current TOPCon module delivery prices range from RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.73-0.82/W for distributed projects.

End-market demand remains weak in China, with limited new orders and a lack of clear incremental growth drivers. Still, ground-mounted project volume has shown a gradual recovery since Q2 compared with Q1. Meanwhile, manufacturers continue to adjust their pricing strategies, increasing flexibility in internal pricing guidance to secure more project orders going forward.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has remained at USD 0.116/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

In Europe, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since the start of June, now exceeding USD 4,000 after a weekly increase of nearly 40%. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up freight rates and lifted spot market prices in Europe.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from RMB 0.30-0.33/W. For detailed real-time prices in each region, please see Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.