Ground-mounted project deliveries pick up while module prices continue to fall

Polysilicon

Negotiations for new orders began to emerge last weekend, with a small number of sporadic transactions observed this week. Mainstream prices this week are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 30-33/kg

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 30-31/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 31.5-32/kg

In terms of transactions, buyers continue to respond cautiously, some mainly making small-volume purchases, while others are primarily drawing down their own inventories. As midstream remains under pressure and expectations for further polysilicon price declines persist, the overall transaction price range has narrowed. Amid this vicious cycle, prices are likely to remain at low levels. Looking ahead to the wet season, with leading producers resuming production and some producers raising output, monthly polysilicon output has been revised upward. This makes it difficult for the market to support current transaction prices. We still expect polysilicon prices to fluctuate at low levels in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall back to RMB 30–32/kg, while the overall average price may break below RMB 30/kg, with the possibility of an overshoot. The key variable remains the implementation of energy consumption standards. If the policy is strictly enforcemd, it could accelerate structural adjustments and support industry recovery.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices declined this week as expected, with mainstream averages falling by RMB 0.02. Average prices are at RMB 0.85/piece for 183N, RMB 0.95/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.15/piece for 210N. Notably, although prices have begun to soften, direct procurement activity has yet to improve meaningfully. Overall shipment momentum remains weak, while inventory pressure persists.

Low-priced transactions are most evident for 210RN wafers. Although deals below RMB 0.95/piece have been reported, shipment and confirmation timelines will likely delay their impact on market prices until next week. With end-market demand yet to recover, wafer prices remain under pressure to fall further and remain insufficient to cover full production costs, likely staying only above cash-cost levels.

Outside China, inventories accumulated ahead of the export tax rebate adjustment are gradually being drawn down, and declining wafer prices have increased buyer inquiries. However, most buyers continue to seek prices RMB 0.01–0.02 lower than those in China, resulting in weak transaction activity. Near-term conditions will depend on restocking demand and shifts in price acceptance.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W (flat)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.265/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.26-0.265/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.275/W (down)

By format, as some cell manufacturers have gradually reduced 183N production in July, inventories have declined following earlier low-priced sell-offs, allowing prices to temporarily bottom out. Downstream procurement interest has recovered, and cell manufacturers have begun raising their quotes. Once existing low-priced orders are delivered, the average price is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.27/W.

The outlook for 210RN cells has been bearish this week amid persistent oversupply. Inventories remain concentrated in this format, while mid- and low-efficiency cells and returned stock from non-China markets continue to pressure the market, accelerating price declines. Prices for 210N cells also declined, driven mainly by lower production costs, though near-term supply and demand remain relatively balanced.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has declined to USD 0.045/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.043-0.047/W. The overall price decline was mainly driven by lower wafer costs. Chinese manufacturers continue to rely on toll manufacturing, while supply and demand remain more favorable than for n-type cells, with no significant changes.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has fallen to USD 0.040/W this week, and the price range has moved down to USD 0.039-0.041/W. Markets outside China reflect a mix of new orders and existing low-priced inventory. Buyers continue to seek lower prices, with negotiations ongoing. As prices bottom out in China, USD-denominated export prices are expected to stabilize.
 

Module

Module prices in the Chinese market have continued to soften this week. TOPCon module prices for ground-mounted projects in China have fallen by RMB 0.01/W this week to RMB 0.70/W, and prices for distributed projects have dipped by RMB 0.005/W to RMB 0.74/W. The overall average price has declined to RMB 0.72/W. Current actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

On the supply-demand side, demand from ground-mounted projects in China has started to pick up gradually in July, driving a corresponding increase in module production schedules. China’s monthly module output is estimated to reach 37–38 GW this month, up about 4–5 GW from last month, while global module production plans have been raised accordingly to 48–49 GW.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. Volatile silver prices since the start of the year have significantly impacted module costs. The decline in China’s module prices in recent months reflects persistently weak end-market demand and a lack of meaningful support for market prices. Compared with the beginning of the year, end buyers have also begun mirroring the earlier narrative previously used by manufacturers—that cost increases justify price hikes—and are now asking module makers to lower their price quotes accordingly, further intensifying bargaining pressure in the market.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June and are set to exceed USD 6,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. This week, TOPCon module prices in Europe are adjusted on a USD FOB-equivalent basis due to higher freight costs and a weaker euro. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W.