Persistent inventory overhang weighs on wafer prices

Polysilicon

Suppliers continue to fulfill previously secured orders this week. Mainstream prices are as follows:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 30-33/kg

• Mixed-lot polysilicon: RMB 30-31/kg

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 31.5-32/kg

In terms of transactions, buyers maintain a cautious procurement strategy, mainly making small-volume purchases, with some focusing on inventory drawdown. As midstream remains under pressure, expectations for further polysilicon price declines persist. However, policy uncertainty remains, and most manufacturers are still waiting to see whether any policy changes emerge by the end of the month.

Current transaction prices are difficult for the market to sustain; we still expect polysilicon prices to fluctuate at low levels in July and August. Prices for recycled mono-grade polysilicon may fall back to RMB 30–32/kg, while the overall average price may break below RMB 30/kg, with the possibility of an overshoot. The key variable remains the implementation of energy consumption standards. If the policy is strictly enforced, it could accelerate structural adjustments and support industry recovery.
 

Wafer 

Wafer prices continue to decline this week. Transaction prices were still seen last week at RMB 0.85/piece for 183N, RMB 0.95/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.15/piece for 210N wafers, while lower-priced transactions at RMB 0.02/piece below these levels continued to account for a growing share. As of this week, mainstream average prices have fallen to RMB 0.83/piece for 183N, RMB 0.93/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.13/piece for 210N.

Despite the recent release of standards related to energy consumption, which initially raised market expectations that prices might stabilize or even begin to rise, policy support has yet to translate effectively into market prices amid persistently weak end demand and supply-demand fundamentals that have yet to improve.

All three mainstream formats have seen lower-priced transactions. However, 183N wafers continue to show greater price resilience than larger formats. With demand from outside China still providing some support, both the extent of the decline and the degree of price divergence are expected to remain relatively limited.

By contrast, for larger formats, persistent inventory accumulation and rising supply have led to a further increase in low-priced transactions among second- and third-tier manufacturers of 210RN wafers. Given the time lag between order signing and actual pickup, these lower prices are expected to be reflected more clearly in the market average next week.

As for 210N wafers, mainstream transaction prices currently stay at RMB 1.13–1.15/piece.

In the near term, wafer prices will remain under pressure as demand has yet to recover and prices are hovering near cash-cost levels. Looking ahead, whether prices can find support will depend on the extent of production cuts and output schedule adjustments implemented by manufacturers in August.
 

Cell prices in China

Prices for n-type cells this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.27/W (flat)

Price range: RMB 0.265-0.27/W (flat)

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.26/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.26-0.265/W (down)

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.265/W (down)

Price range: RMB 0.26-0.27/W (down)

In line with last week's expectations, 183N inventory levels have declined recently, with prices appearing to have temporarily bottomed out. In addition, India's relaxation of certain Approved List of Manufacturers and Models (ALMM) exemption requirements has provided a modest lift to demand from non-China markets.

By contrast, inventories of 210RN and 210N cells continued to build this week, with prices softening again. 210RN still accounts for a relatively high share of inventories, and some manufacturers continue to sell at low prices, making a near-term price recovery unlikely.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices (USD): The average price for 182P has remained flat at USD 0.045/W this week, with prices ranging from USD 0.043-0.047/W. Manufacturers in China continue to rely on toll manufacturing. Notably, the above-mentioned partial relaxation of India’s ALMM requirements has led to a recovery in demand from non-China markets and higher price quotes. Some Chinese manufacturers are now assessing whether to resume supplying p-type products.

N-type cell prices (USD): The average export price of 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.040/W this week, and the price range has stayed at USD 0.039-0.041/W. Low-priced inventories in non-China markets are still being worked through, but price-quote levels have gradually stabilized, with some suppliers even raising offers. Whether this can translate into a recovery in average prices will depend on the outcome of ongoing price negotiations.
 

Module

Module prices in the Chinese market hold steady this week. Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules are around RMB 0.65–0.73/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.70–0.76/W for distributed projects.

On the supply-demand side, demand from ground-mounted projects in China has started to pick up gradually in July, driving a corresponding increase in module production schedules. China’s monthly module output is estimated to reach 37–38 GW this month, up about 4–5 GW from last month, while global module production plans have been raised correspondingly to 48–49 GW.

In the short term, module prices may decline further. Volatile silver prices since the start of the year have significantly impacted module costs. The decline in China’s module prices in recent months reflects persistently weak end-market demand and a lack of meaningful support for market prices. Compared with the beginning of the year, end buyers have also begun mirroring the earlier narrative previously used by manufacturers—that cost increases justify price hikes—and are now asking module makers to lower their price quotes accordingly, further intensifying bargaining pressure in the market.

Outside China, the average of TOPCon module prices has declined to USD 0.115/W. In the Middle East, shipment disruptions and logistics delays amid the war are temporarily constraining price momentum. Updated prices have yet to be finalized.

For Europe-bound shipments, ocean freight rates on China–Northern Europe routes have surged since early June and are set to exceed USD 6,000 per 40-foot high-cube container. The rise reflects concentrated rate hikes by carriers, reduced shipping capacity, and Red Sea rerouting, all of which have pushed up ocean freight costs and lifted spot market prices in Europe. For euro-denominated spot prices, please refer to the Spot Price—Advanced Coverage.

U.S. module prices diverge significantly due to differences in domestic content share. Prices for U.S.-assembled modules currently range from USD 0.30-0.33/W.