Upstream quotes soften as sentiment cools; module delivery prices edge higher

Polysilicon

No new polysilicon orders have been executed this week, with transactions continuing to be fulfilled mainly under pre-holiday contracts. Some manufacturers have begun negotiating March orders; however, amid weak market sentiment and rising inventory pressure, certain suppliers are offering lower prices to clear stock. As a result, the overall price acceptance level has fallen below RMB 50/kg, while buyers continue to push bids toward RMB 40/kg.

Most previously contracted high-priced orders have been delivered, and recent transactions mainly reflect newly signed contracts. Amid these delivery-cycle dynamics, prices have declined to RMB 44–53/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon, RMB 43–50/kg for mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots), and RMB 42–45/kg for granular polysilicon.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg, with Malaysia-made polysilicon holding steady. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have declined sharply this week, with quotes updating frequently as most manufacturers adjusted prices within one to two days. Current mainstream prices stand at RMB 1.05/piece for 183N, RMB 1.15/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.40/piece for 210N.

Notably, this week’s average prices are calculated based on transactions from February 25 to March 5. As some earlier high-priced deals are included, the reported averages are slightly higher than current spot levels. Among the formats, 183N and 210RN have seen more pronounced declines, while 210N has remained stable, though negotiations are still ongoing.

By wafer formats:

• 183N: Since February 25, some transactions have still concluded at RMB 1.10/piece. As quotes continue to adjust, mainstream prices have declined to RMB 1.05–1.08/piece, with recent deliveries largely concentrated around RMB 1.05/piece.

• 210RN: Prices are at RMB 1.13–1.20/piece, with most deals this week mainly at RMB 1.15–1.18/piece. Among them, transactions at RMB 1.15/piece have gradually increased in volume and are becoming the prevailing market price.

• 210N: Most transactions remain at RMB 1.40/piece; however, amid ongoing market negotiations, further downside remains possible.

Overall, although the upcoming export VAT rebate adjustment in early April was expected to trigger a final round of stocking, recent market developments suggest limited support for prices. Wafer output in March is projected to increase notably from February, which may support cell production schedules and help ease inventory pressure, though supply has yet to tighten. Meanwhile, with polysilicon prices continuing to decline and cost support weakening, wafer prices are likely to remain under downward pressure in the near term.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices have all declined this week. 183N and 210N are at RMB 0.42-0.43/W, averaging RMB 0.42/W. 210RN has fallen to RMB 0.42-0.44/W, averaging RMB 0.43/W.

From a supply–demand perspective, procurement demand for 183N—supported by non-China orders—has largely been absorbed earlier, with relatively few new contracts signed thereafter. Meanwhile, 210N continues to face weak demand from utility-scale ground-mounted projects in China. In contrast, 210RN maintains a relative price premium, supported by stronger module and downstream demand.

Overall, as wafer and silver prices continue to decline, downstream pressure to reduce prices is increasingly being transmitted upstream. Coupled with a notable MoM increase in planned cell production in March, demand support from the upcoming removal of export VAT rebates remains insufficient to sustain current market levels, and cell prices may face further downside.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD: 

The average price for 182P cells remains unchanged at USD 0.05/W this week. Higher-priced products—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—also remain flat at USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

In line with Chinese price trends, the average export price of 183N from China has declined to USD 0.057/W this week. Meanwhile, high-priced n-type cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. hold at USD 0.115/W.

Notably, following the U.S. countervailing duty determinations on Indonesia and Laos, cell shipments from these two countries are now primarily being redirected to the Indian market. Subsequent export channels for cells to the U.S. are largely disrupted, with only a small volume of previously contracted orders still being delivered.
 

Module

Following last week’s market adjustments after the Lunar New Year, module prices have been adjusted as follows this week:

TOPCon: In China, the average price for distributed projects has increased by RMB 0.03/W to RMB 0.79/W, while the ground-mounted average has risen by RMB 0.01/W to RMB 0.70/W, bringing the overall average to RMB 0.763/W.

BC: The average price for distributed projects in China has adjusted to RMB 0.86/W, while the ground-mounted average is adjusted to RMB 0.81/W.

Currently, TOPCon module quotes in China stand at RMB 0.85–0.90+/W. Actual transaction prices are RMB 0.68–0.70/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.83/W for distributed projects.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules stands at USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.10-0.13/W.

End-market demand remains weak, with a limited volume of new orders and transactions and no clear incremental momentum. Although prices have shown signs of rising, the weak demand offers limited support for sustained increases, and prices may still soften in the near term.

Module prices have rebounded notably; however, the increase has been largely driven by rising silver prices rather than a meaningful recovery in end-market demand. As a result, the price adjustment has not translated into margin improvement, and overall profitability remains weak. In essence, this round of price movement reflects a cost-driven correction rather than a demand-led recovery.

In non-China markets, shipment momentum has seen a short-term rebound in the short term ahead of the export VAT rebate adjustment. However, against a backdrop of seasonally weak demand and wait-and-see sentiment following recent module price increases, procurement remains cautious, and the market has yet to show clear signs of recovery.