Upstream prices decline further; downstream quotes lose support

Polysilicon

This week, polysilicon deliveries have been primarily executed under previously signed contracts, with a few new deals concluded. Most producers remain cautious amid weak demand, while procurement in the midstream segment continues to slow. With polysilicon inventories reaching record-high levels, the current market environment is increasingly unfavorable for producers attempting to maintain high price levels.

Market strategies among producers have begun to diverge. Leading manufacturers are largely keeping prices firm and suspending new quotes, while shifting to downstream tolling arrangements to help reduce on-hand polysilicon inventories and ease pressure. In contrast, some producers under financial pressure are negotiating at lower prices. As a result, transaction prices have dropped to RMB 45–50/kg, while buyers continue to push prices down toward nearly RMB 40/kg.

Price adjustments this week:

• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 42–50/kg (down)

• Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 41–46/kg (down)

• Granular polysilicon: RMB 42–45/kg (flat)

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon stays at USD 18/kg, with Malaysia-made polysilicon holding steady. Prices for Oman-made polysilicon remain under negotiation. For U.S.-made polysilicon prices, please refer to the subscription-based information section.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued their downward trend this week, though the overall extent of the decline remains limited. Most transactions have been executed at delivery prices that began to take effect last week and have gradually become the prevailing market levels.

By wafer format:

• 183N: 183N wafers have largely been transacted at RMB 1.05/piece since March 5, with little change so far this week. In some cases, lower-priced deals have been negotiated at RMB 1.03/piece. As the export tax rebate adjustment approaches, most downstream buyers have completed their restocking activities. Against the backdrop of potentially weakening demand, prices may still face further downside.

For larger wafer formats, prices have shown greater divergence. 

• 210RN: This week, 210RN wafers have mainly been transacted at RMB 1.13–1.18/piece, with most deals “centered around RMB 1.15/piece. 

• 210N: 210N wafers have been traded at RMB 1.30–1.40/piece. As demand from utility-scale PV projects has yet to ramp up, transaction prices remain relatively dispersed. Since March 5, while a small number of deals have stayed at RMB 1.40/piece, most transactions have gradually shifted down to RMB 1.35–1.38/piece, with RMB 1.35/piece now becoming the mainstream market level.

Overall, current wafer inventory levels remain high while procurement demand from cell manufacturers continues, suggesting that there is still room for further inventory drawdown. Nevertheless, with upstream costs continuing to soften, wafer prices are likely to remain under downward pressure in the short term.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

• 183N

Average price: RMB 0.42/W (flat)
Price range: RMB 0.41–0.43/W

• 210RN

Average price: RMB 0.42/W (down)
Price range: RMB 0.41–0.42/W

• 210N

Average price: RMB 0.41/W (down)
Price range: RMB 0.40–0.42/W

Price trends by cell format:

• 183N: As noted last week, demand from non-Chinese orders continues to provide support. Short-term restocking ahead of the cancellation of China’s export tax rebate has helped sustain current price levels.

• 210RN: Although orders from both Chinese and non-Chinese markets remain relatively stable, prices continue to follow the downward movement of upstream costs.

• 210N: Prices remain constrained by weak demand from ground-mounted projects, with the most pronounced declines among the three formats.

The market dynamics remain unchanged this week. With continued declines in wafer and silver prices and a significant increase in cell production schedules for March, price recovery remains unlikely despite a short-term demand boost from the upcoming cancellation of the export tax rebate. As demand gradually weakens thereafter, cell prices may decline further toward late March.
 

Cell prices outside China

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price and quotes for 182P cells remain flat at USD 0.05/W this week.

Higher-priced products—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—also remain flat at USD 0.085/W this week.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

In line with Chinese price trends, the average export price of 183N from China has declined to USD 0.057/W this week.

High-priced n-type cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. hold at USD 0.115/W this week.

Following the U.S. preliminary countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on Indonesia and Laos, cell shipments from these two countries have been redirected to India. As a result, export channels for Southeast Asian cells to the U.S. have largely been disrupted.

In light of changes in product trade flows, U.S.-bound Southeast Asian cells will be excluded from InfoLink's price assessments starting next week. The USD high-end cell price will be revised to reflect the high-end price of China-exported cells.
 

Module

Module prices in China hold steady this week. Currently, TOPCon module quotes stand at RMB 0.85–0.90+/W. Actual transaction prices land at RMB 0.68–0.70/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.76–0.83/W for distributed projects.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules stands at USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved to USD 0.10-0.13/W.

End-market demand remains weak, with a limited volume of new orders and transactions and no clear incremental momentum. Although prices have shown signs of rising, the weak demand offers limited support for sustained increases, and prices may still soften in the near term.

Module prices have rebounded notably; however, the increase has been largely driven by rising silver prices rather than a meaningful recovery in end-market demand. As a result, the price adjustment has not been translated into margin improvement, and overall profitability remains weak. In essence, this round of price movement reflects a cost-driven correction rather than a demand-led recovery.

In non-China markets, shipment momentum has seen a short-term rebound in the short term ahead of the export VAT rebate adjustment. However, against a backdrop of seasonally weak demand and wait-and-see sentiment following recent module price increases, procurement remains cautious, and the market has yet to show clear signs of recovery.